Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Weapons
The old rules of the nuclear game were clear, complete with the jargon of "time-urgent hard target kill" and similar ungainly esoterica. These essays, which do not all immediately focus on the future, deliver a central message: Whatever new powers may think about weapons of mass destruction, they probably do so differently than did the United States or the Soviet Union. The volume offers numerous case studies, which include fascinating (if chilling) reading on a variety of countries (Iraq, Iran, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea) as well as terrorist groups; one senses that the list is not exhaustive. The challenge for the United States, these essays conclude grimly, is figuring out how to respond to the use of such weapons when-not if-they are used.
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The Bush administration has done little to contain the spread of weapons of mass destruction, even as undeterrable nonstate actors grow more intent on obtaining and using them. U.S. counterproliferation policy needs an overhaul. Its new goals should be to get nuclear material out of circulation, reinforce nonproliferation agreements, and use new technologies and invasive monitoring to get better and more actionable intelligence.
The risk of a catastrophic exchange of nuclear missiles has receded. Yet the chances of some use of weapons of mass destruction have risen. Chemical weapons are a lesser threat, but more likely. A vial of anthrax dispersed over Washington could kill as many as three million. Traditional deterrence will not stop a disgruntled group with no identifiable address from striking out at America. The United States must pull back from excessive foreign involvements and begin a program of civil defense to reduce casualties in the event the unthinkable happens.
The specter of weapons of mass destruction being used against America looms larger today than at any time since the Cuban missile crisis. The World Trade Center bombing scarcely hints at the enormity of the danger. America is prepared only for conventional terrorism, not a nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons catastrophe. With the right approach and organization, however, the United States can be ready. Herewith a plan to reorganize the U.S. government to ensure that it can handle the threats of the next century.

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