Transitional Citizens: Voters and What Influences Them in the New Russia
How far has the average Russian come on the road from subject to citizen? In painstakingly careful fashion, Colton studies the results of Russia's first two parliamentary elections and the 1996 presidential election and gives a remarkably refined and systematic answer. It turns out that when multiple-rather than isolated-influences are factored in, Russian voters are already more like their Western counterparts than many observers have thought. Despite the weakness of Russia's party system, for example, voters are heavily influenced by partisan preferences. They also vote by issues, not ethnicity or religion. Although they do respond to personality, it is not as important as Western specialists have assumed. In contrast to the West, however, age counts more than education or income as a determining factor of behavior. Still, Colton acknowledges that whether the Russian voter will be an anchor or an Achilles' heel of democracy depends on institutions and an ethos yet to be constructed.
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Will Russia be run by democrats or oligarchs? The signs are worrying. The West would rather not dwell on the extent to which Russia's market is dominated by robber barons and permeated by crime and corruption. Russia's democracy is weak, with unfair election campaigns, a compromised media, and few checks on the presidency. The West cannot afford to let Russia descend into chaos, which might mean losing control of Russia's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, but its two-faced NATO expansion policy hurts the democrats' chances.
Russia's interests demand good relations with everyone, but older, darker forces tempt it to avenge its fall from superpowerdom. Westernizing democrats govern for now, but ex-communist elites and embittered generals scheme to re invigorate the military and reassert control over the borderlands. Their machinations are creating a fault line across the oil-rich Caucasus and Central Asia. For Russia to neglect its reconstruction to pursue the illusion of power would be a monumental mistake. While the expansion of NATO is misconceived, the West must not encourage Russian hard-liners with unmerited concessions.

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