Washington faces two enormous tasks in forming economic policy: it must preserve U.S. economic supremacy while defusing the bitter resentment that America's clout provokes abroad. A grand bargain with developing countries is badly needed. For starters, America should slash its trade barriers in agriculture and textiles in return for a global accord on intellectual-property rights.
David E. Sanger is White House Correspondent for The New York Times. He previously served as the paper's Tokyo Bureau Chief and Chief Washington Economic Correspondent.
CLOSING THE WEALTH GAP
The Clinton administration came to Washington eight years ago with a straightforward plan to reorient American foreign policy. To spur a lagging economy, it put America's commercial interests -- promoting exports and opening markets -- on par with the country's traditional security interests. It was a strategy born of the "it's the economy, stupid" campaign. To its enthusiasts, this was a long-overdue adjustment in the country's foreign policy priorities, a recognition that the Cold War had ended and that Europe and Japan had long put their competitive interests first. To Clinton's critics, it was low diplomacy, a perversion of America's global role.
As Clinton leaves office, this argument over where America's diplomatic priorities should lie seems quaint and hopelessly out-of-date. Eight years of growing economic interdependence around the world have all but ended the debate. Moreover, the political and economic dynamics of America's world role have completely reversed. Today there is no question the American economy reigns supreme -- at least for the moment. Japan has been flat on its back for so long that few in the White House even remember when they were consumed with opening Japan's markets for American cars, apples, and cell phones. At the same time, the concept of how economic forces shape foreign policy and vice versa has become infinitely more complex. If most of the first Clinton term was all about boosting American exports, the past five years have been about stabilizing the rest of the globe, from Mexico to Asia to South America. The new administration comes to power with the far greater challenge of preserving America's place atop the world economy while defusing enormous resentments about U.S. economic, cultural, and military might. Washington must convince other nations -- both poor and rich -- that it is shaping a world economic system for their benefit as well as its own.
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U.S. trade policy is adrift and under siege. America's traditional commitment to open markets is now buffeted by both left and right, from labor unions and environmentalists to big business and "America First" isolationists. Fortunately, the advent of the World Trade Organization offers Washington a chance to balance the protectionist threat. If the United States cooperates with the WTO to settle trade disputes multilaterally, it can dilute both protectionist pressure at home and anti-American resentment abroad. But robust leadership and commitment will be needed, and neither Congress nor President Clinton seems up to the task.
Although few U.S. politicians will admit it, antidumping policy has strayed far from its original purpose of guarding against predatory foreign firms. It is now little more than an excuse for a few powerful industries to shield themselves from competition -- at great cost to both American consumers and American business.
America now faces the prospect of economic conflicts with both Europe and East Asia. The United States and the European Union have already fired the first shots of retaliatory sanctions over their ever-growing trade disputes. On the other side of the world, meanwhile, Asian countries are creating a bloc of their own that could include preferential trade arrangements and an Asian Monetary Fund. These developments could produce a tripolar world and hamper global economic integration. To avert this outcome, the United States must quell its domestic backlash against globalization and reassert its economic leadership in the world. The new Bush administration should make multilateral trade liberalization a top priority -- or it will face unpleasant economic and political consequences as the U.S. and foreign economies slow.
