Turkey's Transformation and American Policy
Topics covered here include the changing nature of Turkey's domestic politics, Turkey and the Kurds, the Turkish economy, Greek-Turkish relations, Turkish perceptions of U.S. policy, and American policy toward Turkey. Although the major organizing theme is American-Turkish relations, the book as a whole transcends bilateral ties and presents clearly the complexities of Turkish politics, whether domestic or foreign. Such issues as Turkey and the European Union, Turkish-Israeli relations, the Turkish military's adamant defense of secularism against Islamist challenges, and Cyprus are treated with a sure touch for the historical background and the present situation. Cengiz Candar on Turkish views of the United States and Alan Makovsky on the multiple pressures affecting U.S. policy toward Turkey illustrate well the messy reality of diplomacy -- even among friends.
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In a departure from its traditional foreign policy, Turkey is now becoming an important player in the Middle East. Turkey's growing concern over Kurdish nationalism has brought Ankara closer to the governments of Iran and Syria, which also contend with restive Kurds at home. Although troubling, this shift could be an opportunity for Washington and its allies to use Turkey as a bridge to the Middle East.
The United States is spreading its aid and efforts too thin in the developing world. It should focus on a small number of "pivotal states": countries whose fate determines the survival and success of the surrounding region and ultimately the stability of the international system. The list should include Mexico, Brazil, Algeria, Egypt, South Africa, Turkey, India, Pakistan, and Indonesia. A discriminating strategy for shoring up the developing world is a wise way to address traditional security threats and new transnational issues; it might be thought of as the new, improved domino theory. If effective, it could forestall the move in Congress to wipe out nearly all foreign aid.
The Middle East that awaits the Clinton administration is a locus of terrorism, drugs, refugees, armaments and oil. Iran, newly pragmatic on domestic and economic issues, is not inclined toward cooperation with either its neighbors or the wider world. Iraq's Saddam Hussein wasted no time in testing the resolve of the incoming American president. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia find an increasingly educated middle class seeking a greater voice in the political process. Turkey, after half a century of avoiding outside entanglements, is a country at risk. The former Soviet republics of Central Asia are newly relevant to American policy, with Muslim fundamentalism on the rise and the nuclear arsenal of Kazakhstan still intact.
