Anxious to turn back a string of recent victories by President Mohammad Khatami and his reformist allies, Iran's conservatives have embarked on a campaign of bloody repression. As the two camps battle for control of the Islamic Republic, the proper moves from Washington just might tip the balance. Modest engagement can help Iran's moderates help themselves.
Puneet Talwar served on the State Department's Policy Planning Staff from 1999 to 2001 and recently joined the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He prepared this article while on a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship; the views expressed here are his own.
BACKLASH
Soon after reformists won a landslide victory in Iran's February 2000 parliamentary elections, the conservative offensive began in earnest. One of the first victims was Saeed Hajjarian, a top strategist in the reform movement and among President Mohammad Khatami's closest advisers, who was on his way to a meeting of Tehran's city council when a young man hopped off a motorcycle and approached him. The man pulled a gun, pointed it at Hajjarian's head, and fired. The reformist survived the attack, although he was critically wounded, and the gunman and several accomplices were eventually tried and imprisoned. Still, few Iranians believe the attackers acted on their own, and the incident drove home the extraordinary risks now facing Iran's reformers. The shooting also marked the beginning of a sustained assault on the reform movement that has continued ever since.
Anxious to turn back Khatami's democratic reforms, hard-line conservatives are now resorting to ever more aggressive tactics. On March 4 of this year, Mostafa Tajzadeh -- Iran's deputy interior minister and another Khatami confidant -- was sentenced to a year in prison by the conservative judiciary. The trumped-up conviction, ostensibly for rigging votes in last year's parliamentary victory by the reformists, was an attempt by hard-liners to prevent Tajzadeh from overseeing the June 8 presidential election.
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Both in public and underground, Iranians are debating the legitimacy of the Islamic state that Khomeini built. Students challenge the notion that Islam has all the answers but evince pride in an Iran free of the shah and under no foreign master. The religious and secular elites are increasingly willing to contemplate pluralism and openness to the world, though most makers of the revolution remain obdurate and appeal to anti-Americanism to stir up the masses. Washington needs to listen to the new voices of Iran.
Nearly a quarter-century after the revolution, economic failure and a bankrupt ideology have discredited the Islamic Republic. Despite the attention paid to a clash between "reformers" and "conservatives" in the government, the real story in Iran is the growing discontent among the generation born after 1979. This "Third Force" will eventually topple the regime, and the United States should just watch and wait.
President Bush is only half right to trumpet the spread of freedom as the main objective of U.S. foreign policy; the pursuit of justice is just as important. Broadening the focus would not only befit the United States' political tradition, but also help neutralize opposition from radical Islamists and critics of globalization.
