Weapons Without Purpose? Nuclear Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era

With the end of the Cold War, most Americans stopped thinking about nuclear weapons. They assumed that such weapons were now of little use and that Washington would soon sensibly wrap up any remaining problems in the nuclear arena. In The Price of Dominance, however, Jan Lodal warns that this complacency is unwarranted and proposes a comprehensive nuclear strategy for the post-Cold War era. Unfortunately, Lodal's recommendations have greater merits than chances of being adopted. And because he treats so many issues in fewer than 150 somewhat repetitive pages, readers receive a great deal of information quickly but without much depth. Those who disagree with him or advocate alternative policies are unlikely to feel that he has dealt adequately with their positions -- let alone be convinced by his.

One point on which Lodal cannot be disputed, however, is his claim that U.S. nuclear policy has drifted since the Cold War. Here he speaks with some authority, having served on the staff of the National Security Council under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford and having worked for the Defense Department in the Clinton administration.

The end of the Cold War has brought more changes to world politics than to the American nuclear posture. The 1997 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (start iii) called for the United States and Russia to reduce their respective nuclear arsenals to 2,000-2,500 warheads, but political obstacles have prevented ratification and both countries have retained much larger forces. And although the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty sharply limited missile defenses, the national missile defense (NMD) plans sketched by the Clinton administration would have required the treaty's revision. Now President George W. Bush has called for scrapping that treaty in favor of developing an extensive version of NMD. U.S. officials argue that missile defense is aimed

not against Russia or China, but rather against accidental launches and "rogue" states such as North Korea, Iran, and Iraq. But the issue is complicated by the fact that both technically and politically, NMD overlaps with proposed theater missile defense (TMD) systems designed to protect both U.S. forces in the field and U.S. allies, especially in the Middle East and eastern Asia. Furthermore, nuclear weapons are now only one subset of a larger category of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), with terrorists and rogues perhaps more likely to favor chemical or biological weapons because they are easier to obtain -- although all WMD are more easily available now than they once were, thanks to the spread of information, technology, and expertise.

Understanding these problems is difficult in part because the context in which they arise is unique. No modern country has ever dominated the world to the extent that the United States does today. This situation makes it hard to rely on models from the past. It also gives the United States unprecedented possibilities for leadership while simultaneously making it the target of not only extremists around the world but also many ordinary countries resentful of such concentrated power. In this setting, Lodal argues cogently, Washington needs a coherent policy that can cover a broad range of WMD issues in a way acceptable to, even if not welcomed by, Moscow, Beijing, and its allies.

NO MORE MR. TOUGH GUY

At the core of Lodal's proposed "strategic vision" lies a reaffirmation of deterrence rather than defense as the central principle of U.S. nuclear strategy, coupled with an understanding that "no amount of military strength will allow America to deal with [the] new threat alone; a multilateral consensus will be required." The two elements are linked. One reason why current U.S. nuclear policy meets with opposition from Russia and others is that the large number of offensive nuclear weapons that it involves, especially in conjunction with the proposed NMD, might credibly threaten Russia's retaliatory capability, thus subverting the logic and stability of mutual assured destruction. During the Cold War, some strategists considered this offensive nuclear predominance desirable as a way to counter a Soviet conventional threat to Europe. But if such a stance was appropriate in the past, it is no longer relevant today, when U.S. offensive strikes against Russia and China or protracted wars requiring the destruction of vast numbers of military targets are unthinkable.

If policymakers accepted this truth, Lodal notes, the United States could dispense with its land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and base its deterrence strategy on a second-strike capability of roughly a thousand highly survivable weapons based on bombers and in submarines. It could also adopt a thin NMD system like the one President Bill Clinton endorsed, a posture that would not threaten Russia's retaliatory capability. Although the United States could proceed toward it over Russian opposition, Washington and Moscow could solidify the gains of this more palatable U.S. policy and improve political relations through concurrent arms-control talks aimed at what Lodal calls "strategic transparency, safety, and stability." Such a package could also provide the political foundations for U.S.-Russian cooperation against nuclear proliferation and terrorism.