Weapons Without Purpose? Nuclear Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era

Lodal calls for a limited NMD intended not to cope with an all-out Russian or Chinese attack, but to guard against accidents and third-party strikes while removing the possibility that Russia or China might use the threat of a limited nuclear strike as a coercive tactic. He accepts with equanimity the prospect that if Washington went ahead and deployed NMD, Beijing would increase and modernize its strategic missile force to ensure that it could penetrate U.S. defenses. But the book does not discuss whether an improved Chinese capability might allow a Sino-Russian alliance to threaten the U.S. deterrence capability, especially at the low level of U.S. forces Lodal proposes. Moreover, the author thinks robust TMD capabilities can combat many threats and should be deployed in eastern Asia because "China has no legitimate reason to threaten Taiwan or Japan militarily." But he is too quick to gloss over the likely political implications of such a move. Of course TMD would have favorable political effects if it convinced China that military threats against Taiwan would be useless at best. But whether this would, in fact, be China's reaction is unclear and requires more discussion, as does the range of coercive instruments China could employ against Taiwan (such as harassment of shipping) that TMD would not affect.

STRENGTH IN NUMBERS

Lodal shares the widespread view that the greatest WMD danger today comes from rogue states. And missile defense, he notes, cannot prevent WMD attack because missiles are only one, and perhaps the least likely, of the delivery systems available. So Lodal advocates supplementing defense and arms control with greatly enhanced intelligence and law enforcement. Accordingly, he calls for international cooperation in these areas, since protecting against the threat of WMD will be almost impossible if the effort is unilateral. Perhaps the most important change needed in America's approach to [WMD] nonproliferation enforcement is to accept the essentiality of organizing coalitions to deal with proliferation.

The United States by itself cannot gather all the necessary intelligence or cut off the flow of material and information to potential proliferators; still less can it unilaterally isolate or exert moral pressure on dangerous regimes.

Indeed, Lodal's argument that U.S. security policy must gain international acceptance and approval to be successful is more important than his specific policy recommendations. The world dominance of the United States makes cooperation both more imperative and more difficult than it was during the Cold War. In that standoff between two superpowers, Washington could pursue its primary mission of deterrence largely unilaterally. But U.S. goals are now broader and achieving them will require working closely with others. Enhancing democracy; maintaining an open economic system; inhibiting conflict among developing nations; encouraging eastern Europe, Russia, and China to develop moderate and rule-governed habits -- all these ambitions, in addition to limiting the dangers of WMD, will require more than simply the efforts of one country. And although American dominance means that others must curry U.S. favor, it also tempts other countries to take a free ride and let the United States provide as many international public goods as possible. It also gives them strong reason to resist an overbearing United States, in typical balance-of-power fashion. Achieving the sort of cooperation Lodal envisages will therefore be tough and will require delicate and sustained U.S. diplomacy informed by a full consideration of other nations' aspirations and fears.

This cooperative diplomacy is unlikely to be forthcoming from Washington. Lodal acknowledges but understates the strength of unilateralist feeling in the United States, often mistakenly interpreted as isolationism. Unilateralist impulses were strong in the Clinton administration, especially during the first term, and have been given still freer reign under President Bush. In the eyes of much of the world, in fact, the prime rogue state today is the United States. In explaining his rejection of the Kyoto Protocol, for instance, Bush said, "We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first things first are the people who live in America." It is hard to see how this attitude could produce the kind of cooperative endeavors Lodal favors. Although the Bush administration may seek significant cuts in offensive U.S. nuclear forces, it will probably couple any reductions with a robust missile defense system and a reluctance to enter into international agreements that regulate the U.S. program. This will hardly be enough to secure the assistance of foreign governments, which will cooperate only if Washington makes commitments and builds structures that give others some confidence that the United States is not exploiting its uniquely powerful position.

THE SOUNDS OF SILENCE