The Future of the American Pacifier

The traditional goal of America's foreign policy has been to prevent the rise of a peer competitor. Washington sends troops abroad only when a potential hegemon arises that others cannot contain. Europe and Northeast Asia are quiet now, so the United States will likely withdraw its forces over the next decade or so, throwing those regions back into familiar great-power rivalry. Over time, however, China could become the most powerful rival the United States has ever faced-and Washington's policies since the end of the Cold War have been speeding Beijing's rise rather than slowing it.