The Logic of Economic Reform in Russia
Hough argues that economic reform went wrong in Russia not because "perverse" actors -- such as stick-in-the-mud managers, corrupt officials, and oligarchs -- thwarted the best efforts of liberal reformers. Rather, the same actors responded rationally to the perverse incentives created by the liberal Western reformers. Notwithstanding the more speculative aspects of his analysis, Hough exposes better than others what was going on behind the facade of reforms. But on the key issue of reform strategy, what he treats as self-evident seems less so to other observers: rather than follow the liberal reformers -- who Hough claims were as venal as they were misguided -- Russia should have stuck with the moderate conservatives in Yeltsin's entourage. If Russia had followed the latter's urging and attempted to save its manufacturing core, invest in it, and initially protect it from foreign competition, a healthier linkage between institutions and incentives might have been created. No less contentious is his claim that Russia could have caught itself and taken the Chinese path of reform even after the first round of reforms.
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Ukraine has yet to solve the challenge of life after communism. Hyperinflation is just a memory and democracy is well entrenched, but production is declining, state industries remain unsold, and investors have largely stayed away. With nationalists ascendant in Russia, Ukraine needs Western money and diplomatic backing to preserve its independence and keep reform on track. A free, democratic Ukraine can serve as a model for Russia, prevent a new Soviet Union, and promote stability among its neighbors. A civil war between its Russified east and its more Ukrainian west, or its absorption into a new Russian empire, would reverberate throughout Europe.
The Caspian basin holds enormous oil and gas deposits that could play a critical role in the world's economic future. But getting them out of the ground and onto the market requires overcoming formidable political and geographic problems. For its own sake as well as the region's, Washington should do whatever is necessary to ensure the emergence of secure and independent routes for Caspian energy to reach the outside world.
Russia's era of romantic democracy is over. Boris Yeltsin's victory in the 1996 elections marked the rise of a new class of oligarchs who have profited from post-Cold War chaos. But Westerners who predict a return to authoritarianism and cultural stagnation overlook how far Russia has come since the late 1980s, and how it has opened to the world. It is not the Soviet Union, nor the land of the czars. In the short term, most Russians cannot hope for much, especially from their leaders. But with its political reforms, 98 percent privatized economy, and educated, urban population, Russia has a great deal going for it-maybe more than China.

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