Six Nightmares: Real Threats in a Dangerous World and How America Can Meet Them
This book by President Bill Clinton's former national security adviser may seem anticlimactic after September 11. Lake did not foresee that particular style of terrorist attack, but he did warn of the possibility of "asymmetric warfare" by states or groups hostile to the United States. Here he sketches hypothetical "nightmares" in the early twenty-first century, ranging from anthrax attacks to civil war in North Korea, that conclude with the true story of how U.S. Senate leaders voted down the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty without hearings -- even though most Americans supported it. Lake skillfully uses this rhetorical device not only to outline threats but to discuss the lack of U.S. preparedness. He also offers revealing glimpses of the Clinton administration while suggesting organizational improvements, which include a White House office for homeland defense. A rich chapter on Washington's foreign policymaking during the past decade underlines the destructive tendencies of partisan politics and the perverse role of the press, which appears determined to report only bad, preferably character-damning news. He shows that foreign policy is not a sports event, with clear winners and losers; indeed, relations go on for years, even decades. Especially insightful is his discussion of the dangers attending excessive weakness in other countries, whether allies or potential adversaries.
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After more than 50 years of dominating Northeast Asian diplomacy, Washington must now accommodate the fallout from the historic rapprochement between North and South Korea. As regional leaders take the reins of diplomacy, they face an uncertain future and lack the institutions that could guide the transition. The next U.S. administration can help, but not until it rethinks its own regional policies.
After the historic summit between Pyongyang and Seoul last June, the Koreas could be on their way to eventual reunification. To ensure such progress, Washington should consider making military and economic concessions -- including the possible withdrawal of U.S. forces -- to formally end the Korean War.
President Bush's condemnation of North Korea as part of the "axis of evil" caused confusion worldwide, as allies and enemies alike tried to discern his administration's constantly shifting policy toward Pyongyang. But there is method to the madness. Look closely, and a consistent strategy emerges: "hawk engagement." Although Bush's team may use tactics seemingly similar to those of Clinton's, the administration wants to engage Kim Jong Il for very different reasons: to set him up for a fall.
