Democratizing U.S. Trade Policy; Trading Blows: Party Competition and U.S. Trade Policy in a Globalizing Era
Congress and the president have long been struggling to find a new consensus on the U.S. approach toward global trade. Stokes and Choate argue that the current broken consensus can be rebuilt if the United States would arrive at agreements in a more democratic way. Congress would have its own office to analyze trade issues, sending observers as mandatory members of the U.S. negotiating team. Information about ongoing negotiations would be opened up to outsiders. These ideas may be good, especially to those critics who prefer perfect trade agreements that are perfectly unattainable. But the authors do not present any evidence that "democratizing" the trade negotiating process would actually rebuild consensus about what should be done. They do throw a bone to free traders by suggesting easier voting procedures on trade agreements in the U.S. Senate. The free traders, however, may have noticed that they tend to encounter bigger vote-counting problems in the House of Representatives.
For evidence on just why Congress has become so fractious on trade issues, readers can turn to Shoch. He argues that trade policies have become significantly more polarized along party lines in the last 20 years. Here the national political parties really do matter. But how the party rivalries actually play out in particular cases is complex, as Shoch illustrates with a detailed analysis that emphasizes the White House's role and the cohesion and attitudes of congressional party caucuses. Rivalry is intense but disordered. In the absence of energetic presidential leadership, therefore, the likely winners will be those who display the greatest skill at political maneuver in the three-dimensional chess of interest groups, congressional politics, and international diplomacy.
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The recession threatens to poison US foreign relations. The Bush administration failed to capitalize on the momentum of the Gulf War and Cold War victories, and proved "far more adept at cleaning up the debris of an old world than building the framework of the new". "Unless the nation embarks upon a comprehensive program of domestic renewal, the United States within a few years could become so deeply mired in its own troubles that its politics will turn even more embittered, xenophobic and inward. The specter of neo-isolationism that raised its head in late 1991 will then be but a precursor of worse to come, as reluctance to act as a leader turns into outright refusal, and international politics becomes a bare-knuckled brawl".
The new president cannot wait until his January 20 inauguration to signal boldly how he will deal with urgent economic problems at home and abroad. He should confront Congress as a tough fiscal conservative on domestic spending and open discussions with German and Japanese leaders on trade, growth, and currency issues.
Protectionist sentiment on Capitol Hill threatens to scuttle Washington's free-trade agenda. A bipartisan consensus on trade could emerge, but only if the White House and the Democrats can reach a compromise on labor issues.
