Japan's Economic Dilemma: The Institutional Origins of Prosperity and Stagnation; Arthritic Japan: The Slow Pace of Economic Reform
Drawing heavily on Japanese sources, sociologist Gao provides an admirable interpretation of Japan's economic boom and subsequent stagnation. Both resulted from postwar strategic decisions regarding the choice of national objectives, above all economic growth and social stability, and the distinctively Japanese means to achieve each goal. The Japanese system emphasized high coordination of economic activity but neglected monitoring and control. It also left the maintenance of social stability to private firms, through their employment practices and tight relationships with suppliers and distributors. Both approaches served Japan well during periods of high growth but became dysfunctional during the sluggish 1990s and today contribute to continuing stagnation. Lincoln's analysis is complementary, offering less detail on postwar Japanese history and more on recent years. He sees many vested interests resisting an economic shakeup, each for its own reasons, as well as inadequate countervailing forces. Institutional structures inherited from previous decades and cultural proclivities also inhibit reform. One should therefore expect muddling through rather than dramatic change. Given publication lags, there is no discussion of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, but his meager record to date supports Lincoln's analysis.
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Soviet options in East Asia are limited by the USSR's lack of economic influence, but Gorbachev's new flexible diplomacy has led to limited advances. Discusses current relations with China, Japan, and the two Koreas, noting that influence in the Pacific region's economy is likely to be marginal for the next few decades. Concludes that prospects are good for a reduction in tension in the region.
For over half a century Japan and Germany have been at the heart of America's international preoccupations. After a long and destructive war against both countries, the United States worked exhaustively to help its two erstwhile enemies recover and build democratic societies secure under the American defense umbrella. From the late 1960s to the mid-1980s, victor and vanquished moved to a more balanced relationship, especially in trade and finance. Today, in one of history's great role reversals, Tokyo and Bonn have become Washington's fierce trading rivals and also its primary bankers.

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