The Rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan: Mass Mobilization, Civil War, and the Future of the Region
Nojumi's study is organized around the rise and fall of centralizing, mobilizing regimes. After a brief backward look at King Amanallah, a would-be modernizer who ruled from 1919 to 1929, the author moves through Afghanistan's tormented history, from the overthrow of the monarchy and the rise of the communists in the 1970s to the present. Both the communists and the Taliban, polar opposites in their politics, failed in their Stalinist effort to impose a centralized order on Afghanistan. Yet the period in between the two was marked by the doleful inability of the several different mujahideen groups to create a durable political order after having achieved Soviet withdrawal. This failure paved the way for the Taliban. Woven into this history of abortive state-building is the constant of multifaceted outside intervention, ably reviewed in the chapter titled "Afghanistan in the International System." Not surprisingly, Nojumi concludes that state-building, needed even more now, requires a third movement "different from the radical communists and fanatic Islamists."
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The world's focus in Afghanistan is shifting from waging war to picking up the pieces and helping the long-suffering Afghan people. But can action follow words? Modern refugee crises require solutions that pair crisis response with nation building, and private agencies with national and international actors. But the organizations devoted to such tasks remain outdated, uncoordinated, and shackled by politicians and bureaucrats. The system is broken, and it cannot be fixed from within.
The first engagement in the new war on terrorism -- with Osama bin Ladin in Afghanistan -- poses severe challenges for the United States. Rooting out bin Ladin's network will require military success in a country that the Soviet Union could not conquer in ten years of trying, as well as support from unstable surrounding nations. Washington may be tempted to try to oust the Taliban regime, but doing so could rekindle Afghanistan's brutal civil war. The United States must proceed with caution -- or end up on the ash heap of Afghan history.
The military campaign in Afghanistan has been, for the most part, a masterpiece of creativity and finesse. It may wind up being one of the most notable U.S. military successes since World War II. But the American strategy has also had flaws. Most important, by contracting out much of the work to undependable local proxies, it may have allowed Osama bin Laden and other al Qaeda leaders to escape -- and menace the world down the road.

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