Integrating China into the Global Economy
In this new addition to the ongoing debate over the future of China's economy, Lardy sees much that is positive. He begins by proving he is no Pollyanna about China's prospects, noting Occidental Petroleum's disastrous joint venture in the 1980s. (The firm had to write off a $250 million loss after a failed attempt to develop China's biggest-ever coal mine.) Yet he quickly makes clear that this book is no string of anecdotes but a disciplined study that focuses singularly on China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Lardy reviews Beijing's early economic reforms to show how they prepared the stage for making accession possible, then examines the problems the country will be facing upon joining the WTO. Although Lardy explores all the likely scenarios for China and the WTO, he is generally optimistic that China will effectively integrate itself into the world economy.
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How important international trade is for the less developed nations is indicated by the fact that it frequently accounts for 20 percent or more of their total economy as against 8 percent for the economy of the United States. Indeed, trade is much more important to them than aid. Total exports of the less developed areas amounted to $31 billion in 1960, while the total flow of financial assistance from the industrial nations (including private foreign investment) amounted to $8 billion.
After being shackled by the government for decades, India's economy has become one of the world's strongest. The country's unique development model -- relying on domestic consumption and high-tech services -- has brought a quarter century of record growth despite an incompetent and heavy-handed state. But for that growth to continue, the state must start modernizing along with Indian society.
Only a few years ago pundits were sure that the United States was losing to Asia and Europe and had to emulate their more state- directed economies to remain competitive. Now the conventional wisdom is that America is number one and that the rest of the world should adopt its more laissez-faire approach. In fact, neither caricature is right. Asia was booming and now it is slumping, but it will be back. Europe's underlying ossification will persist. But most important, while the U.S. economy is in a period of robust growth, nothing fundamental has changed. Its long-run growth rate has not accelerated, productivity has not risen, and the structural unemployment rate has fallen by one percentage point at most. Come the next recession, all this triumphalism will seem silly.

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