Integrating China into the Global Economy
In this new addition to the ongoing debate over the future of China's economy, Lardy sees much that is positive. He begins by proving he is no Pollyanna about China's prospects, noting Occidental Petroleum's disastrous joint venture in the 1980s. (The firm had to write off a $250 million loss after a failed attempt to develop China's biggest-ever coal mine.) Yet he quickly makes clear that this book is no string of anecdotes but a disciplined study that focuses singularly on China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Lardy reviews Beijing's early economic reforms to show how they prepared the stage for making accession possible, then examines the problems the country will be facing upon joining the WTO. Although Lardy explores all the likely scenarios for China and the WTO, he is generally optimistic that China will effectively integrate itself into the world economy.
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America now faces the prospect of economic conflicts with both Europe and East Asia. The United States and the European Union have already fired the first shots of retaliatory sanctions over their ever-growing trade disputes. On the other side of the world, meanwhile, Asian countries are creating a bloc of their own that could include preferential trade arrangements and an Asian Monetary Fund. These developments could produce a tripolar world and hamper global economic integration. To avert this outcome, the United States must quell its domestic backlash against globalization and reassert its economic leadership in the world. The new Bush administration should make multilateral trade liberalization a top priority -- or it will face unpleasant economic and political consequences as the U.S. and foreign economies slow.
Forecasts the emergence of an international order based on 'civilian powers', defined as states dependent on economic co-operation, supra-national structures, and primarily economic (rather than military) means of defending the national interest. A discussion of the potential of the FRG and Japan as such powers.
