Modernizing China's Military: Progress, Problems, and Prospects
This superb book provides an authoritative and comprehensive account of the attempt by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) to cope with the transformation in the strategic environment brought about by the unique power and the military technologies of the United States. The book covers all aspects of military affairs, from the PLA's position in the political system to budgets and procurement issues, as well as doctrine and force structure. Shambaugh also provides a cool analysis of the difficulties China would face in a war with Taiwan. He has amassed a remarkable amount of evidence, which allows him to draw careful but confident conclusions. In general he supports the view that China is still decades behind the United States in advanced technology, and in many areas the gap is widening, although he notes the recent efforts put into ballistic missiles and information technology. His basic message to the Bush administration: Keep watching and keep talking, but don't panic.
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China's reform policies have created economic opportunities, but they have also unleashed political tensions. Some U.S. strategists advocate a containment strategy, yet such a strategy is both undesirable and infeasible. America's fortunes in Asia depend on the evolution of a China that is secure, cohesive, reform-oriented, and open to the world. Failed reform could easily lead to a nationalistic, obstructionist China. In recent years, Washington, while trying to engage the People's Republic, has driven it into a corner over human rights. America must develop a long-term strategy to integrate China into the world community and avert serious damage to this crucial bilateral relationship. And it must begin to do so now.
Kenneth Lieberthal's encyclopedic survey of the People's Republic bets the Communist Party can keep the lid on the country's political discontent, but a billion increasingly affluent Chinese may be getting other ideas.
China is headed in the right direction. Deng's successors cannot achieve his stature, and the more stable and secure China remains, the faster power will devolve to a more liberal generation. As in other Asian nations, economic development will foster political liberalization, as well as a capitalist Hong Kong and an independent Taiwan. Though decentralization is stressful, China does not suffer from the structural weaknesses that undermined the Soviet Union. Corruption and human rights abuses are severe, but citizens can vote in competitive local elections and change jobs as they wish. China should be permitted to continue a liberation unprecedented in history.

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