The Four Faces of Nuclear Terror And the Need for a Prioritized Response

Unfortunately, there are few significant advocates in Russia today for these kinds of steps. As a consequence, although Allison may be right that Russia would be "flattered by the prospect of standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the United States" in a new global alliance against nuclear terrorism, Moscow is unlikely to do much about it. The lack of headway made in improving intelligence-sharing on illicit nuclear trafficking, for example, and the slow pace of upgrading security at many Russian nuclear sites both suggest how difficult it will be to improve actual cooperation. Russia's government has expressed far more interest in preventing terrorist acquisition of radioactive sources that could be used in a dirty bomb -- an important but secondary nuclear threat -- than in safeguarding fissile materials.

Allison is right to propose a new "International Security Standard" to help guarantee that nuclear weapons and weapons-usable material are made inaccessible to terrorists. But he neglects to discuss the greatest risk in this regard: Russia's large stockpile of tactical nukes. These weapons are relatively small in size, are deployed in forward locations, and, in some instances, lack electronic locks to prevent unauthorized use. Despite a growing chorus of international calls to improve security for and reduce the number of such weapons, neither the United States nor Russia has expressed much interest in doing so, beyond the limited voluntary steps they initiated in 1991. Moreover, although Russia has yet to implement fully its earlier pledges, the United States has not pressed the matter, and both sides have resisted calls to reaffirm their parallel unilateral declarations.

Allison highlights the nuclear threats posed both by states and by nonstate actors. He should, however, have explained the differences in their motivations and what these imply for how to stop them. Instead, his focus shifts back and forth between blocking terrorist access to fissile material and denying the emergence of new nuclear weapons states. Although both objectives are laudable, curbing state proliferation will not necessarily prevent nuclear terrorism. The multifaceted challenges require a multifaceted response by national governments and international organizations. Allison proposes a number of very useful measures, especially for keeping fissile materials out of the hands of terrorists. If U.S. policymakers hope to grapple with the full range of nuclear terrorist threats, however, they will need a more complete discussion of the differences between these dangers, and a prioritized set of recommendations.

William C. Potter is Institute Professor and Director of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. Charles D. Ferguson is Scientist-in-Residence at the Center's Washington, D.C., office. Leonard S. Spector is Director of the Washington office. The three are co-authors, with Amy Sands and Fred Wehling, of The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism.