Chinese Foreign Policy in Transition
This is an extremely useful collection of articles by leading China scholars. Some, such as Thomas Christensen's "Chinese Realpolitik" and Richard Bernstein and Ross Munro's "The Coming Conflict with America," attracted considerable attention when first published. Others, by such distinguished figures as Harry Harding, Alastair Ian Johnston, and Joseph Nye, provide different perspectives on various aspects of China's foreign relations, including bilateral relations, the Korean problem, and the movement toward an Asian community. The authors mostly agree that, contrary to European experiences with the rise of new powers, China can execute a "peaceful rise" to great-power status-in large part because globalization forces developing countries competing for foreign investment to maintain peaceful, stable markets. The one serious danger of war, of course, comes from China's confrontation with Taiwan. (And it is a danger for which no one has a good solution: calls to maintain the status quo are not very useful because both entities are far too dynamic to be frozen in such a static mode.) Ultimately, identifying guiding principles behind Chinese foreign policy proves rather elusive: China has abandoned both its traditional view of the outside world and its revolutionary Marxist-Leninist ideology, and there is still no clear sign of what will come next.
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There is no major political system today about which we have less data and fewer meaningful facts than that of Communist China. Yet decisions which will shape our diplomacy, and more concretely our military establishment, for years ahead must be made in the light of what we now surmise to be the Chinese people's character and dynamics. Inescapably we fall back upon abstractions and gross generalizations.
Despite international calls for reform, the North Korean government is doing its best to maintain the domestic status quo -- and with good reason, at least from its perspective. Still, change is coming in very slow motion thanks to international aid and illegal exchanges with the outside world, which are eroding Pyongyang's legitimacy.
For a nation whose founding is lost in the mists of antiquity, Japan is in many respects a very new country. Last year we celebrated the hundredth anniversary of the Meiji Restoration, which marked our entry into the modern world. This year the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which I am honored to head, observed its centennial. By contrast, the United States, which is in every respect a young nation, possesses a number of institutions that are far older than many of Japan's. The Department of State, for example, is only a dozen years short of its bicentennial, and Harvard University, with its 333-year old history, is more than three times the age of my own alma mater, Tokyo University, now in its ninety-second year.

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