Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies
It has become routine to describe International Monetary Fund aid to a country in financial distress as a "bailout," particularly of foreign creditors. This characterization was deeply misleading in most cases. But "bailing in" foreign creditors in times of crisis--having creditors contribute to financial relief rather than add to the financial problem--became one of the top agenda items in reforming the international financial architecture. It was acknowledged that any such mechanism(s) would likely reduce the flow of private capital to developing countries, but that was viewed by some as an advantage and by others as a necessary price for mitigating the economic damage and distress associated with financial crises. This thorough book reviews critically and common-sensically the extensive if somewhat specialized discussion of the issue, as well as proposals to restore financial stability after financial crises by involving private capital directly in prospective workouts--by (very) loose analogy, to create an effective Chapter 11 of the U.S. bankruptcy code for sovereign debtors.
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Competitiveness debates have contrasted countries that have industrial policies, like Japan, with more laissez-faire countries like the United States. But the pivotal difference is the level of a people's trust. High-trust societies are interlaced with voluntary organizations--Rotary clubs, Bible study groups, private schools--and thus have "social capital," which makes for the growth of large corporations in highly technical fields. Low-trust societies--France, Italy, China--tend toward small, family-owned businesses in basic goods. Social capital is not necessary for growth, but its absence tempts governments to intervene in the economy and imperil competitiveness.
The economist Hernando de Soto argues in his new book that property rights are an essential ingredient for economic development. But this single-bullet theory would do better by noting the complex cultural factors that also affect growth.
A Pretext to Panic
Michael S. Teitelbaum and Jay Winter
"The Global Baby Bust," by Phillip Longman (May/June 2004), offers a new version of an old fear: the threat of population decline, which has emerged periodically throughout the past century as a major focus of political discourse. Such worries seem to crop up at predictable moments: when a dominant political or economic power begins to feel unsure of its mastery and uncertain about the future, many thinkers turn to demography for an explanation of its plight.
