The United States and the World Economy: Foreign Economic Policy for the Next Decade
The Institute for International Economics has established itself as a premier policy-oriented think tank in the arena of foreign economic policy. The papers in this volume were prepared to offer analysis and advice to the U.S. administration of 2005. It contains 13 chapters by 18 authors, including most members of the institute's senior staff. The topics covered, often with a policy perspective, include trade, trade-adjustment assistance, the gains from globalization and their distribution, China and other emerging markets, global imbalances, oil, offshore outsourcing, immigration, development, and international financial architecture. Especially striking is a comprehensive estimate of the U.S. gains from globalization over the past half century: around $1 trillion a year, roughly 9 percent of GDP, with another 5-12 percent of GDP that could be realized if the country moved to free trade. Not everyone will agree with all of the analyses or recommendations -- for example, on the sustainability of the external deficit or the expansion of trade-adjustment assistance -- but the book does the great service of providing both factual material and thoughtful policy analysis in a single volume.
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With China's economic clout growing rapidly, Americans are accusing Beijing of every offense from currency manipulation to crooked trade policies. None of these charges has much merit, but they have increased the probability of a U.S.-Chinese trade war that would do considerable damage to both sides.
Although few U.S. politicians will admit it, antidumping policy has strayed far from its original purpose of guarding against predatory foreign firms. It is now little more than an excuse for a few powerful industries to shield themselves from competition -- at great cost to both American consumers and American business.
Washington faces two enormous tasks in forming economic policy: it must preserve U.S. economic supremacy while defusing the bitter resentment that America's clout provokes abroad. A grand bargain with developing countries is badly needed. For starters, America should slash its trade barriers in agriculture and textiles in return for a global accord on intellectual-property rights.

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