Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East
In this stark portrait of a coming economic crisis, the veteran trade analyst Prestowitz writes that the postwar era of U.S.-led globalization is giving way to a global economic restructuring headed by China and India. He is alarmed, because those nations are not simply integrating into the Western world economy; they are shaking its already "battered and strained" foundation, playing by different rules and growing quickly. Prestowitz is all the more worried because the United States is not prepared for this momentous shift. One failing is the mismanagement of the U.S. economy, manifest in low household savings, high budget shortfalls, and unsustainable trade deficits and foreign borrowing. But the deeper problem for Prestowitz is that the United States has no national strategy to protect its industry, skilled workers, and technological leadership. Echoing his earlier work, he argues that the United States' laissez-faire economic ideology and confidence in its technological and productive supremacy have prevented Washington from grasping the coming crisis and from developing a programmatic national response. Unfortunately, Prestowitz's actual policy recommendations are a bit skimpy -- as is his exploration of the global implications of the shift in wealth and power to the East.
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OF the many experiments in the purposeful promotion of economic development which the world has witnessed since the end of World War II, incomparably the most important among underdeveloped countries is India's. The population involved in this experiment constitutes a third of the people of the non-communist underdeveloped world-more human beings than are to be found in all the underdeveloped countries of Africa and Latin America put together. The development planning effort undertaken by the Indians is one of the oldest and probably the most sophisticated to be found in any of these countries. Finally, it has been conducted in the context of a genuinely democratic political system, with repeated free elections, substantial freedom of expression by opposition groups and two orderly changes of top leadership. Three five-year plans have been completed since Independence, and India is in its fourth quinquennium of serious development effort.
Soviet options in East Asia are limited by the USSR's lack of economic influence, but Gorbachev's new flexible diplomacy has led to limited advances. Discusses current relations with China, Japan, and the two Koreas, noting that influence in the Pacific region's economy is likely to be marginal for the next few decades. Concludes that prospects are good for a reduction in tension in the region.
No, it is not a silly question -- merely one that is not asked often enough. Odd as it may seem, the country that is home to a fifth of humankind is consistently overrated as an economy, a world power, and a source of ideas. Economically, China is a relatively unimportant small market; militarily, it is less a global rival like the Soviet Union than a regional menace like Iraq; and politically, its influence is puny. The Middle Kingdom is a middle power. China matters far less than it and most of the West think, and it is high time the West began treating it as such.

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