Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East
In this stark portrait of a coming economic crisis, the veteran trade analyst Prestowitz writes that the postwar era of U.S.-led globalization is giving way to a global economic restructuring headed by China and India. He is alarmed, because those nations are not simply integrating into the Western world economy; they are shaking its already "battered and strained" foundation, playing by different rules and growing quickly. Prestowitz is all the more worried because the United States is not prepared for this momentous shift. One failing is the mismanagement of the U.S. economy, manifest in low household savings, high budget shortfalls, and unsustainable trade deficits and foreign borrowing. But the deeper problem for Prestowitz is that the United States has no national strategy to protect its industry, skilled workers, and technological leadership. Echoing his earlier work, he argues that the United States' laissez-faire economic ideology and confidence in its technological and productive supremacy have prevented Washington from grasping the coming crisis and from developing a programmatic national response. Unfortunately, Prestowitz's actual policy recommendations are a bit skimpy -- as is his exploration of the global implications of the shift in wealth and power to the East.
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A combination of factors is inexorably pushing India toward what may be described as a political and economic watershed. The decisions and actions that its leadership takes-or fails to take-this year may shape the history not only of India but perhaps of Asia for a long time to come.
Soviet options in East Asia are limited by the USSR's lack of economic influence, but Gorbachev's new flexible diplomacy has led to limited advances. Discusses current relations with China, Japan, and the two Koreas, noting that influence in the Pacific region's economy is likely to be marginal for the next few decades. Concludes that prospects are good for a reduction in tension in the region.
The West accounts for a disproportionate share of world income because it has already passed through capitalist development. Now that Asia is becoming capitalist, it will return to the center of the world economy, where it was in the early nineteenth century. Current currency crises are only blips on the screen. Asia's miracle transpired not because of shrewd industrial policy or great leaps forward but because countries attracted foreign investment and moved up the development ladder one rung at a time. But ahead lies the challenge, particularly for India and China, of establishing modern governments.
