Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East
In this stark portrait of a coming economic crisis, the veteran trade analyst Prestowitz writes that the postwar era of U.S.-led globalization is giving way to a global economic restructuring headed by China and India. He is alarmed, because those nations are not simply integrating into the Western world economy; they are shaking its already "battered and strained" foundation, playing by different rules and growing quickly. Prestowitz is all the more worried because the United States is not prepared for this momentous shift. One failing is the mismanagement of the U.S. economy, manifest in low household savings, high budget shortfalls, and unsustainable trade deficits and foreign borrowing. But the deeper problem for Prestowitz is that the United States has no national strategy to protect its industry, skilled workers, and technological leadership. Echoing his earlier work, he argues that the United States' laissez-faire economic ideology and confidence in its technological and productive supremacy have prevented Washington from grasping the coming crisis and from developing a programmatic national response. Unfortunately, Prestowitz's actual policy recommendations are a bit skimpy -- as is his exploration of the global implications of the shift in wealth and power to the East.
Related
Asia's economies are in trouble, as a contagion of plunging currencies and economic instability has taken hold on the continent. But the miracle is not necessarily over. Asia's leaders must move beyond economic liberalization and address the deep-seated problems of the other Asia-not the rich, booming Asia, but the poor, rural, ignored one. To keep the miracle going, the entire population must be brought into the action. That will mean making difficult choices, like investing in agricultural productivity, education, and social services, but the region's leaders can't afford not to.
Can Mao or the inheritors of Mao's authority entertain the possibility of some "separateness" for any Chinese within his egalitarian One China world? The answer to this question will influence Peking's attitudes toward peaceful coexistence with Taipei, intellectual and cultural diversities at home, and possibilities for future organization of China's economic system.
America now faces the prospect of economic conflicts with both Europe and East Asia. The United States and the European Union have already fired the first shots of retaliatory sanctions over their ever-growing trade disputes. On the other side of the world, meanwhile, Asian countries are creating a bloc of their own that could include preferential trade arrangements and an Asian Monetary Fund. These developments could produce a tripolar world and hamper global economic integration. To avert this outcome, the United States must quell its domestic backlash against globalization and reassert its economic leadership in the world. The new Bush administration should make multilateral trade liberalization a top priority -- or it will face unpleasant economic and political consequences as the U.S. and foreign economies slow.
