Tyranny and Terror

Although the administration's counterterrorism and democracy-promotion policies each have a unique agenda and emphasis, there is also synergy between them. The convergence of these policies is necessary, and the overlap is purposeful.

Both policies aim high, and aiming high entails risk. But with the rapid evolution of the global political environment and the swift transformation of enemy forces, the United States must respond boldly. The United States and its allies must build on the great counterterrorism strengths and opportunities that democracies, in all their various forms, provide. The Bush administration's counterterrorism and democracy-promotion policies will serve as twin rudders to guide the ship of state through this storm, to free people from both terror and tyranny.

PAULA J. DOBRIANSKY is U.S. Undersecretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs. HENRY A. CRUMPTON is U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Counterterrorism.

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Gause Replies

I thank Undersecretary Paula Dobriansky and Ambassador Henry Crumpton for their reading of my article, and I am grateful for the opportunity to clarify points that I did not make sufficiently clear. In the end, however, their response does not disprove my major contentions. Rather, it highlights the pitfalls of relying on a democratization strategy to support the United States' global war against terrorism.

I did not charge that the Bush administration "prescribed democracy as the single-dose remedy to the terrorist disease." And I support its war in Afghanistan, its mobilization of a broad coalition of countries for intelligence sharing and police cooperation, and its efforts to stem terrorist financing. All are important and laudable parts of U.S. counterterrorism policy. However, to imply, as Dobriansky and Crumpton do, that the democracy element of the policy is simply one of many equally important elements is not correct. President Bush and various top officials have repeatedly stressed the centrality of democracy promotion in U.S. counterterrorism strategy. Dobriansky and Crumpton themselves end their response with the soaring metaphor of counterterrorism and democracy promotion as the "twin rudders to guide the ship of state through this storm" -- suggesting that democratization is not simply one part of the policy, but a goal of equal importance in its own right. I do not think that I exaggerated the importance of democracy promotion in the Bush administration's counterterrorism policy.

Given that centrality, what evidence do Dobriansky and Crumpton offer to refute my contention that democratization does not necessarily lead to a reduction in terrorism? None. They simply assert, without substantiation, that the lack of democracy "afford[s] our terrorist enemies an advantage." They contend that illiberalism and authoritarianism produce the safe havens in which terrorists can establish bases of operation, ignoring the fact that the Iraq war, which is now being fought in large measure to bring democracy to Iraq, has created just such bases. They also ignore the fact that many authoritarian states, most notably China, seem able to control terrorism within their own borders.

They further contend, again without offering specific evidence, that democracies can better deal with the domestic consequences of terrorism and are more likely to cooperate among themselves in international counterterrorist measures. But here they smuggle in an important qualifier to their description of democracy -- liberalism. It is undoubtedly true that the liberal democratic states of the Americas, Europe, and, increasingly, eastern Asia form a community of greater trust and cooperation, in part because of their shared liberal values. It is also true that western European democracies have in the past been able to deal effectively with domestic terrorist groups without compromising their liberal and democratic values.

Dobriansky and Crumpton do not, however, address the possibility that democratization will lead to illiberal regimes, nor do they counter the argument (discussed by John Owen in his review essay in the November/December 2005 issue of Foreign Affairs) that democratization in illiberal circumstances can increase the chances of violence and war. They do not recognize the high levels of anti-Americanism in public opinion in the Muslim world, which would necessarily be translated into more anti-American policies if such Muslims could vote on their preferences. They do not even attempt to address my argument that in the Arab world, democratization now would yield Islamist governments, which would most likely not be liberal. If liberalism is necessary for democracy to reduce terrorism and encourage international cooperation, democratization that produces illiberal regimes does not advance the cause.

To their credit, Dobriansky and Crumpton acknowledge that the administration's democratization policy "aim[s] high, and aiming high entails risk." For example, the administration's current pressure on the Syrian government, although justified by Damascus' reckless foreign policy, entails the risk that the regime of Bashar al-Assad might fall. If it is replaced by a liberal democracy, both American interests and American values might be advanced. But if it is replaced by an Islamist regime that sympathizes with the Iraqi insurgency, rejects coexistence with Israel, and seeks to spread its form of government to Lebanon and Jordan, then both American interests and American values will be set back. If Syria collapses into sectarian strife, terrorist groups will find haven there and flourish. Readers can judge for themselves whether this kind of risk is worth taking.