Power Shift: China and Asia's New Dynamics
This is an exceptionally well-organized and clearly focused product of a scholarly conference on the rise of Chinese power and influence and what it means for developments in Asia and for U.S. interests. In his introductory chapter, Shambaugh identifies seven possible models of the power configurations that may be ahead for Asia. These are all relatively realistic models, and no time is wasted on the possibility that China will violently shake up the world system. The first substantive chapter addresses the impressive role China is playing in the world economy; it is followed by chapters analyzing China's political and diplomatic relations with its Asian neighbors. The final two chapters -- on the policy implications of China's rise for the United States -- arrive at somewhat different conclusions. Robert Sutter sees problems ahead for U.S.-Chinese relations, whereas David Lampton is more optimistic, believing that skilled diplomacy should be able to keep in check any major negative developments.
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There is no major political system today about which we have less data and fewer meaningful facts than that of Communist China. Yet decisions which will shape our diplomacy, and more concretely our military establishment, for years ahead must be made in the light of what we now surmise to be the Chinese people's character and dynamics. Inescapably we fall back upon abstractions and gross generalizations.
The West often ascribes mystery and chaos to political and economic power in Japan. Yet Japanese power is actually a carefully structured hierarchy, and the capstone is neither big business nor the Ministry of International Trade and Industry but the little-understood and low-profile Ministry of Finance. The MOF controls Japan's equivalents of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Internal Revenue Service, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. It is the prime mover behind Japan's savings rate, distribution of overseas aid, and regulation of monopolies. However obscure, it may well be the most powerful bureaucracy in the world.
Ichiro Ozawa, a former power broker in the Liberal Democratic Party, has become a seminal figure of Japan's reform movement. A leader of the up-and-coming New Frontier Party, in 1993 he wrote an influential bestseller, Blueprint for a New Japan, that helped define the national debates over democratic reform, social issues, and foreign policy. He views himself as Meiji-type leader, trying to awaken Japan to the changes in the outside world. But many of the Japanese are wary of the savvy backroom dealmaker. In any case, his views are helping chart Japan's diplomatic course: a more engaged global role coupled with a resilient U.S. partnership.
