Endgame in the Balkans: Regime Change, European Style
Pond is cautiously upbeat about the prospects for both the European Union and the Balkan states that want in. The link between the two constitutes the warp and woof of her book, but, in utterly lucid fashion, she does her weaving by tracing the broader, often unsteady, sometimes rapid path back to modern European ways in each of the Balkan countries, beginning with Romania and the striking success story, Bulgaria. All, however -- including Albania, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia -- are given their due. With just enough history to illuminate each story, Pond skillfully guides the reader through the intricate interplay between the region's later violence (Bosnia and Kosovo) and each country's painful effort to put the pieces back together and chase the hope of joining Europe's effort to achieve a common economic space with sturdy political institutions and a unified voice.
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Although Russia has projected itself more forcefully on the world stage since the beginning of the Putin era, its foreign policy still lacks any sort of grand strategic vision. Russian leaders continue to squabble over issues from NATO expansion to the world economy. But they are particularly concerned about Russia's identity, especially with regard to the post-Soviet states. If the Bush administration fails to devise a coherent policy of its own toward its former rival, it may face serious problems down the road.
Moscow with a Soviet hangover tests the patience even of those who most wish to engage it. As Chechnya festers, privatization lags, and the world contemplates the possibility of a communist president in the Kremlin dreaming of empire, some ridicule the notion of partnership. Russian chauvinists paint America as the enemy, but the interests of the two countries after the Cold War are compatible. The West should focus its attention--and Russia's--on common interests like nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, regional peace, and full participati0n in the world economy. America should deal rationally with irrationalities in a nation finding its way.
The dance symbolizes the over-militarization of the superpowers, leading to stagnation in the USSR and undermining the USA economically. Notes some political constraints (demonstrated by the dismissal of Yeltsin) on Gorbachev's domestic programme, as well as his conduct of foreign affairs. By 1987, Reagan faced 'new thinking' on the part of the USSR, a Democrat-controlled Senate and the Iran-Contra affair, as well as economic problems, a major cause of which has been military expenditures. These trends led to a cautious improvement in superpower relations in 1987.
