Iraqi Oil Production
Essay
The twentieth century was the bloodiest era in history. Despite the comfortable assumption that the twenty-first will be more peaceful, the same ingredients that made the last hundred years so destructive are present today. In particular, a conflict in the Middle East may well spark another global conflagration. The United States could prevent such an outcome -- but it may not be willing to.
To the Editor:
In his article "The Next War of the World" (September/October 2006), Niall Ferguson states that Iraq's "oil production is running at just 16 percent of its prewar level because of sabotage and other problems." Actually, since the beginning of 2004, crude oil production has averaged about 1.9 million barrels per day (mbd), and crude oil exports have averaged 1.5 mbd. If we take production in 2001, which was at 2.4 mbd, as the prewar basis, then the 2004 production represents almost 80 percent -- not 16 percent -- of the prewar level.
Alan Khatib
Petroleum engineer, Amman, Jordan
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