Chinese Politics in the Hu Jintao Era: New Leaders, New Challenges
Lam, a journalist based in Hong Kong, has had a remarkable career reporting on Chinese developments. He established excellent sources for following the Mao and Deng generations of Chinese leaders, and now he shows that he has exceptionally good sources for understanding developments among the "fourth generation" of Chinese Communist leaders. Hu Jintao does not have the dramatic leadership qualities of Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, or even Jiang Zemin, the "third generation" leader. Hu made his way to the top by quietly doing his duties and not creating enemies. He also demonstrated leadership skills while serving as Beijing's man in Tibet, at a time when there were serious riots, and as head of the Communist Youth League. Lam describes how Hu overcame his disadvantages and developed into a competent national leader who understands the importance of ideology, slogans, pragmatic policies, and economic reforms in a communist system. He suggests that Hu has the skills and the personality to keep China a communist state even as it progresses economically.
Related
For some months, 1966 promised to be a year of significant albeit gradual change in American policy toward Communist China. In a strange and paradoxical fashion, the emotional issues of the Viet Nam War opened the way for the most sober, responsible and even-handed public discussion of China since the Communists came to power. At Congressional hearings and in the mass media, scholars and leaders of opinion have dispassionately calculated the possibilities for change, and Administration leaders have in their customarily guarded language intimated that change was not impossible. Most significant of all, the American public demonstrated a gratifying degree of maturity by forgetting the old passions and asking for only facts and analyses about the new China. Our national mood was increasingly one of believing that with prudence and wisdom it would be possible to work toward gradually incorporating China into responsible world relationships.
American optimism about East Asia, in precious short supply only a few years earlier, was abundantly available in 1980. "The arc from Korea through Taiwan and the Philippines, at the very center of great power rivalry for much of this century, is less subject to these strains today than at any time in well over forty years," Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke declared in June. Such pronouncements by U.S. policymakers were understandable: East Asia offered far more possibilities--for diplomatic overtures, for expanding trade--than anyone dared predict during the Vietnam era. But in 1980 enough warning signals were flashing throughout the region to suggest the need for a more balanced--and less buoyant--assessment.
In the tangled international tapestry certain relationships dominate the pattern. The U.S.-Soviet struggle has colored almost all world politics for a generation. Franco-German entente has ended centuries of European warfare. One relationship which holds much potential for improving world conditions is that between Japan and the United States. This bilateral relationship, conducted within a dense multilateral web in which each nation has many other ties based on interest and sentiment, is now, and will be increasingly, central to any proper functioning of the world economy and polity.

Sign-up for free weekly updates from ForeignAffairs.com.