Arsenals of Folly: The Making of the Nuclear Arms Race
Following first-rate histories of the making of the atomic and hydrogen bombs, this latest in Rhodes' accounts of the nuclear age comes as something of a disappointment. Part of the problem is that Rhodes is on a well-trodden path, and although there is always a new vignette to be told, this story has many more strands and lacks focus. Rhodes offers just the bare bones of the early nuclear decades so that he can concentrate on the endgame of the Cold War. He focuses, in particular, on the events of 1986, with the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in April and the Reykjavik summit in November, when Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan seriously discussed nuclear abolition. (Rhodes takes this to be a missed opportunity.) He writes well, and there are some telling passages, but instead of concentrating on getting the history right, Rhodes allows his own prejudices to shine through.
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Heady years for arms control make a superpower complacent. The structure of restraint accepted by Washington and Moscow could crack; meanwhile, proliferation continues apace and nuclear materials trickle onto the world market. The Clinton team has followed through on the work of past negotiators, but it is high time for a third start. The United States should propose the dramatic steps of placing nuclear warheads in "strategic escrow" and banning ballistic missiles. Advanced monitoring and inspection technologies make the plan practicable, and there will be security payoffs for all.
Twice before, America had the opportunity to make the prevention of conflict its first line of defense. It must not lose this moment after the Cold War to foment a revolution in security strategy. Preventing proliferation is key, and U.S. programs help turn Soviet missile sites into sunflower fields. The American armed services, the world's most emulated, show other militaries how to function in a civil society and conduct exchanges that head off misunderstandings. In Europe, George Marshall's fondest hopes are being realized through the Partnership for Peace, which reverberates well beyond the security realm. Meanwhile, the United States leverages forces for maximum deterrence and invests in smart technology. But its best investment is in openness and trust, the essential tools of the art of peace.
Nuclear weapons were used for the first and only time in World War II, and the world has grown accustomed to their nonuse. But the overwhelming deterrent forces that worked during the Cold War will not provide protection against the new threats: terrorism and catastrophic accident. The arsenals and mindsets of the past half-century present a formidable barrier to change, but the United States must lead the way in preventing nuclear weapons from becoming acceptable.
