Petrostate: Putin, Power, and the New Russia
That Russia is back -- for both good and ill -- has dawned on many, and its surging energy prowess is a key reason why this is so. Skyrocketing oil prices have fattened the state treasury and repaired the ravaged ego of a leadership that has boldly, ruthlessly, and without quarter taken control of the country's vast energy wealth. Goldman does much more than detail the initial theft of the country's big oil-production units by oligarchs-to-be during the chaos of President Boris Yeltsin's reforms and their vengeful reconfiscation by the state under Yeltsin's successor, Vladimir Putin. With admirable simplicity, he traces Russia's full biography as one of the world's major oil suppliers, from the nineteenth century, when it rivaled the United States, through the rise and fall of the Soviet Union, to the remarkable renaissance of the moment. Goldman is at his best when he lays bare the inner politics of the regime's ham-fisted moves to dominate the Russian energy sector, add to it the pipelines of other countries, and dictate price terms to any and all customers. He is a bit less sure-footed when he spells out how he sees the oil weapon being applied to political ends, a common deficiency in much of the literature.
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As last year's global shortage of petroleum and natural gas showed, the world can no longer keep up with the demands of continued population growth and economic expansion. Indeed, the competition for natural resources is intensifying. And with four-fifths of the world's oil reserves lying in politically unstable areas, with diamond and timber wars already raging in Central Africa, and with many regions suffering persistent drought, resource competition could easily turn into open conflict. Governments now see the acquisition and protection of natural resources as a national security requirement -- and one they are prepared to fight for.
The next great oil boom is on: four former Soviet republics on the Caspian Sea are sitting atop an economic bonanza. But they should remember the fate of OPEC, whose members squandered their 1970s windfall. Where did all the money go? The state took on too dominant an economic role and wasted the wealth at home in a rash of boondoggle projects and military buildups. All OPEC members came down with "quick-money fever." They became addicted to supposedly limitless oil revenues even as boom turned to bust. The Caspian states, too, risk going from riches to rags if they do not resist the temptations of petromania.
Russia and the United States have settled on oil as the basis of a new partnership. This move is dangerous, however, because it ignores the divergent interests of the two countries and their inability to influence global oil markets. Indeed, war in Iraq could tear this partnership apart. A far better basis for U.S. - Russian ties would be the two nations' durable common interest in developing and safeguarding nuclear power.
