Serbia's Antibureaucratic Revolution: Milosevic, the Fall of Communism, and Nationalist Mobilization
Vladisavljevic challenges nearly every aspect of previous accounts of Slobodan Milosevic's rise to power in 1986-87 and of the nationalist mobilization of 1988-89. The notion that the Yugoslav leader's ascent to power and the resignation of Ivan Stambolic as president of Serbia entailed a recasting of the country's existing form of authoritarianism or the leadership's political program is wrong, Vladisavljevic argues. So is the notion that the mass mobilization around nationalist themes that followed was manufactured and managed from above according to Milosevic's preconceived plan. These errors stem from a misunderstanding of the way social movements emerge and swell in mutating authoritarian societies such as that of post-Tito Yugoslavia. Much of Vladisavljevic's attention is focused on the ground-up mobilization of the Kosovo Serbs between 1986 and 1988, which Vladisavljevic insists emerged spontaneously in the collective action of local groups rather than being orchestrated from above. He explores in detail both the path to the point at which and the culminating phase when the leadership caught the wave and began guiding the movement. It is a stimulating argument and doubtless one that will stimulate argument.
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Will Russia be run by democrats or oligarchs? The signs are worrying. The West would rather not dwell on the extent to which Russia's market is dominated by robber barons and permeated by crime and corruption. Russia's democracy is weak, with unfair election campaigns, a compromised media, and few checks on the presidency. The West cannot afford to let Russia descend into chaos, which might mean losing control of Russia's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, but its two-faced NATO expansion policy hurts the democrats' chances.
Russia's interests demand good relations with everyone, but older, darker forces tempt it to avenge its fall from superpowerdom. Westernizing democrats govern for now, but ex-communist elites and embittered generals scheme to re invigorate the military and reassert control over the borderlands. Their machinations are creating a fault line across the oil-rich Caucasus and Central Asia. For Russia to neglect its reconstruction to pursue the illusion of power would be a monumental mistake. While the expansion of NATO is misconceived, the West must not encourage Russian hard-liners with unmerited concessions.

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