My Kingdom for Some Peace

There may be some wishful thinking in the heady days after the king's fall. Some are confidently predicting that the Maoists will soon enter the political mainstream. From the Maoists' perspective, things are going according to plan. They have a newfound credibility with the seven-party alliance, in particular with the left-wing parties. But their army is intact, their human rights record remains poor, and they continue to recruit child soldiers. There has been no outbreak of free speech or pluralism in Maoist zones. Prachanda said on April 27 that the ceasefire was intended to facilitate the ongoing "people's struggle" for a constituent assembly and a democratic republic "so as to lead the struggle to a historic conclusion." But the big question remains: a conclusion to what? Can people steeped in "people's war" rhetoric and "united front" tactics change that much (see the Maoists' website at www.cpnm.org, which features a bright red backdrop with the slogan "Long Live Marxism-Leninism-Maoism and Prachanda Path")?

Reforming the army must also be a central focus of international attention. U.S. and Indian sanctions have led to some improvements, but abuses such as the torture of detainees in custody continue. Last week, the UN human rights office in Nepal found it necessary to issue a statement condemning "the latest killing of seven unarmed civilians by the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA), in Belbari, Morang District, on 25 and 26 April." Hard-line, anti-democratic monarchists such as General Rukmangath Khatawal, the army's second-in-command, remain in their positions. India, the United States, and the United Kingdom need to maintain their suspension of lethal military assistance until real reforms are made and accountability for human rights abuses is established.

Managing elections, drafting a new constitution, and finding a working arrangement between the Maoists, the political parties, and the army will certainly require the United Nations to play a major role, perhaps even in a traditional peacekeeping mission. The UN human rights office in Nepal, set up in 2005, has proved remarkably effective and politically adroit, showing Nepalis and the international community that the organization has a key part to play in the months and years ahead.

A looming test for a new Nepal will be to see how the Maoists react when the issue of disarming and demobilizing their troops makes its way up the agenda. Can a Maoist army integrate an essentially royalist RNA? There have been stranger bedfellows, but it would take a genuine optimist to think this is likely in the foreseeable future.

But then again, after last month, when some of Asia's poorest people showed that they were stronger than a royal army, perhaps optimism should be given a chance.