What Next for Japan?

This disagreement will come to the fore this fall, when the Diet takes up extension of the law that authorized the dispatch of Japanese naval forces to the Indian Ocean to provide logistical support to allied forces in Afghanistan. Ozawa has vowed to defeat extension, hoping this will force Abe to dissolve the lower house and call a general election.

The LDP's election defeat will also mean that sensitive issues such as those relating to U.S. military bases on Okinawa will be more difficult to manage, decisions about upgrades to major weapons systems will be harder to make, and coordination of policy toward North Korea will become even tougher. Finally, Abe's ability to push for revision of the constitution to codify Japan's use of military power is most likely moribund.

Still, the fact remains that Japan has already changed a great deal simply by taking steps toward a de facto reinterpretation of the existing constitution, and it could continue down that path if the country's political system does not grind to a halt. Thus, in the end, Abe's refusal to step down could ironically delay the achievement of the goal he prized so much.