Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto
Climate change is gradually moving up the policy agenda in many countries. And it is likely to continue to do so in the coming decades, albeit irregularly, depending on new information and on the incidence of dramatic climatic events, such as Hurricane Katrina. It is a complex, multifaceted issue, to which this book provides an excellent introduction. The volume gathers essays by leading experts, ranging from climate scientists to economic modelers to lawyers, prepared after a conference at Yale University in late 2005. The authors provide a diverse range of views on the hardness of the scientific evidence for climate change; on the prospects for building an international cooperative arrangement on the basis of the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012; and on alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol. Five contributions usefully assess the background and the prospects for future action in six economies: the United Kingdom, which will meet its Kyoto target; Canada, which will fall far short; Russia, which has no policy in place to deal with climate change but will nonetheless meet its generous target; the European Union, which has installed a carbon-emissions trading market; and China and India, both of which insist that economic development takes strong policy precedence over climate change and therefore refuse to contemplate quantitative emissions targets.
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The Kyoto pact on global warming is neither a battle won nor a costly burden -- more like a quick political fix for the vast problems of climate change. Above all, policymakers need to think more about the long term. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires including the developing countries who sat out Kyoto. Research into affordable energy sources that emit little carbon dioxide must intensify. And the world must develop international bodies to minimize the costs of cutting greenhouse gas emissions, including trading emission rights.
Predicts that oil prices will rise sharply in the 1990s, with "more bargaining leverage again falling into the hands of exporting countries". Whatever the outcome of the Kuwait crisis, OPEC will never be the same again. For French version, see Edward L Morse 'La révolution pétrolière à venir' Politique Étrangère 55/4 Winter 1990 pp793-798.
Thanks to global warming, the Arctic icecap is rapidly melting, opening up access to massive natural resources and creating shipping shortcuts that could save billions of dollars a year. But there are currently no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region. Unless Washington leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict.
