Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia
Gaidar begins with an erudite, historically wide-ranging account of the collapse of many empires, ancient and modern, and then moves on to a briefer summation of the reasons contemporary authoritarian regimes also perish. This is but an impressive prelude to a detailed exposition of why the Soviet Union failed -- indeed, why at some point it had to fail. It was not, as many in his country want to believe, because of external intrigues or treasonous Soviet leaders but because of the "very nature of the system." An anti-Marxist, Gaidar includes in his argument a strong element of economic determinism: economic development in the modern age dooms empires and authoritarians. The Soviet Union swirled to its death in an economic crisis, driven in no small part by its misplaced dependence on oil wealth. His quite explicit purpose is not simply to warn his fellow Russians against counting too heavily on oil revenues and yielding too easily to authoritarian solutions but also to strike against what he sees as a growing threat, the lingering hold of a "post-imperial nostalgia" on much of the political elite. This, he contends, is not only bad for Russia but also dangerous for everyone else.
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Russia's era of romantic democracy is over. Boris Yeltsin's victory in the 1996 elections marked the rise of a new class of oligarchs who have profited from post-Cold War chaos. But Westerners who predict a return to authoritarianism and cultural stagnation overlook how far Russia has come since the late 1980s, and how it has opened to the world. It is not the Soviet Union, nor the land of the czars. In the short term, most Russians cannot hope for much, especially from their leaders. But with its political reforms, 98 percent privatized economy, and educated, urban population, Russia has a great deal going for it-maybe more than China.
Reporters and pundits have spun many theories as to why Yeltsin won. None of them matches the polling data. Clever campaigning, anticommunist scare tactics, even efforts to end the war in Chechnya came at the wrong time. Boris Yeltsin passed Gennadi Zyuganov in the polls only when he traveled the country ladling out pork. Yeltsin doubled the minimum pension and paid off the backlog in wages. A Vorkuta coal miner asked for a car -- and got it. A presidential aide slipped a bystander a handful of cash. High-minded criticism from the West notwithstanding, Tammany tactics are hardly unknown in Western politics, and they did keep a communist out of office.
A new conventional wisdom is forming on the Cold War, but the records do not support its hard line. The Soviet Union did not aim at world conquest. It was afraid, and its clients got out of hand. The U.S. and U.S.S.R. share responsibility.

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