Taiwan's Relations With Mainland China: A Tail Wagging Two Dogs
Su's detailed but fast-paced account dissects Beijing's and Taipei's secret contacts in the early 1990s, the history of the so-called 1992 consensus, how Lee consolidated and used power, the origins and consequences of the 1999 crisis, and how electoral dynamics shaped the evolution of former Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's strategy.
Su was chair of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council in 1999 when Taiwan's president, Lee Teng-hui, shocked not only Beijing and Washington but also most of his own bureaucracy by declaring the existence across the Taiwan Strait of a "special state-to-state relationship." Connoisseurs of cross-strait discourse viewed the statement as tantamount to a declaration of independence. Su's detailed but fast-paced account dissects Beijing's and Taipei's secret contacts in the early 1990s, the history of the so-called 1992 consensus (a term Su coined), how Lee consolidated and used power, the origins and consequences of the 1999 crisis, and how electoral dynamics shaped the evolution of former Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's strategy. Su's views are partisan, thus giving insight into the thinking of Taiwan's new president, Ma Ying-jeou, whom Su currently serves as head of the Taiwanese National Security Council. His analysis of the forces that have shaped policy in all three capitals is nuanced, astute, and uniquely informed.
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The defense of Taiwan remains at the heart of the issue of China. The recent initiatives of Peking and Washington, and the impending presidential visit, have inspired hopeful speculation. Discussion has centered on formulas for recognition and entry into the United Nations. Our alliance with the Republic of China on Taiwan has been given less consideration, and its implications are optimistically avoided. But our security relationship with Taiwan-in particular the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1954-dictates certain diplomatic solutions and precludes others. Definitive choices will have to be made, and illusions of entertaining contradictory positions will have to be abandoned. If the consequences of our defense arrangement are not grasped, and the problems not deliberately resolved, the expectations that have been aroused may be unfulfilled, and the United States may proceed to underwrite a new order in East Asia that offers at best a tense military equilibrium and perpetual American involvement in the political evolution of the region.
China may be the most important country in America's future. Its power is undoubtedly on the rise, and Washington must give it due regard. U.S.-China relations have recently made great progress, particularly on trade-related issues. But the relationship is fraught with tensions that could explode into conflict at any time. The next administration needs to get China policy right, before disaster strikes.
Should the United States maintain its commitment to Taiwan, or should it consider disengaging in order to accommodate China? Shyu-tu Lee and Douglas Paal both argue that alliance with Taipei remains in Washington's interest. Not so, writes Charles Glaser.


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