Political Change in China: Comparisons With Taiwan
The contributors to this conference volume ask not whether China will democratize but how: by following the path of peaceful transition exemplified by Taiwan or in a way that involves more turbulence?
The contributors to this conference volume ask not whether China will democratize but how: by following the path of peaceful transition exemplified by Taiwan or in a way that involves more turbulence? The experts, a star cast, compare the two systems culturally, sociologically, and politically -- and end up disagreeing. The co-editor Diamond and a majority of the contributors hold that Taiwan's social structure, political history, and geopolitical position are too distinctive to make its past a good guide to China's future. The other co-editor, Gilley, and several other contributors argue that China has a strong state facing strong social forces, a circumstance favorable to peaceful top-down democratization along the same lines as Taiwan's democratization at some point in the future (the timetable is uncertain). Whoever is right, the book offers an informative look at Taiwan's past and China's present, with an illuminating application of social science theories.
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The simmering dispute over the status of Taiwan may soon explode in violence. The Chinese regime sees Taiwan's recent democratization as an implicit challenge to its own authority and legitimacy and thus continues to threaten and intimidate the island. Meanwhile, Taiwan has procured advanced defensive weapons from the United States. Growing tensions across the Taiwan Strait, along with the lack of military and diplomatic communication, make conflict -- possibly involving the United States -- increasingly likely. To avoid such an outcome, Washington should actively facilitate cross-strait dialogue and deter provocations by either side. But it must do so soon, for both China and Taiwan are growing impatient.
Developments in East Asia may appear sluggish compared to the momentous changes in Europe and the Soviet Union. The Cold War lines that divide both China and Korea remain firmly in place, although rendered more permeable by flexible policies. East Asia's three communist countries-mainland China, North Korea and Vietnam-are still ruled by first-generation revolutionary leaders. In stark contrast to the peaceful unification of Germany, Vietnam was unified by a vast communist army.
The coming decade will be critical for Taiwan, and for its relationship to the Chinese mainland. Taibei will face the difficult problem of succession to President Jiang Jingguo, its economic development will meet new and serious challenges, and its relations with the People's Republic of China will evolve--in one direction or another.* Developments in Taiwan-P.R.C. relations will continue to influence the Sino-American relationship and the political structure of east Asia. Relations between the two governments claiming to rule over China, however, will increasingly depend on the interaction between Beijing and Taibei themselves, rather than on Washington and other international players.
