Political Change in China: Comparisons With Taiwan
The contributors to this conference volume ask not whether China will democratize but how: by following the path of peaceful transition exemplified by Taiwan or in a way that involves more turbulence?
The contributors to this conference volume ask not whether China will democratize but how: by following the path of peaceful transition exemplified by Taiwan or in a way that involves more turbulence? The experts, a star cast, compare the two systems culturally, sociologically, and politically -- and end up disagreeing. The co-editor Diamond and a majority of the contributors hold that Taiwan's social structure, political history, and geopolitical position are too distinctive to make its past a good guide to China's future. The other co-editor, Gilley, and several other contributors argue that China has a strong state facing strong social forces, a circumstance favorable to peaceful top-down democratization along the same lines as Taiwan's democratization at some point in the future (the timetable is uncertain). Whoever is right, the book offers an informative look at Taiwan's past and China's present, with an illuminating application of social science theories.
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Developments in East Asia may appear sluggish compared to the momentous changes in Europe and the Soviet Union. The Cold War lines that divide both China and Korea remain firmly in place, although rendered more permeable by flexible policies. East Asia's three communist countries-mainland China, North Korea and Vietnam-are still ruled by first-generation revolutionary leaders. In stark contrast to the peaceful unification of Germany, Vietnam was unified by a vast communist army.
The simmering dispute over the status of Taiwan may soon explode in violence. The Chinese regime sees Taiwan's recent democratization as an implicit challenge to its own authority and legitimacy and thus continues to threaten and intimidate the island. Meanwhile, Taiwan has procured advanced defensive weapons from the United States. Growing tensions across the Taiwan Strait, along with the lack of military and diplomatic communication, make conflict -- possibly involving the United States -- increasingly likely. To avoid such an outcome, Washington should actively facilitate cross-strait dialogue and deter provocations by either side. But it must do so soon, for both China and Taiwan are growing impatient.
The defense of Taiwan remains at the heart of the issue of China. The recent initiatives of Peking and Washington, and the impending presidential visit, have inspired hopeful speculation. Discussion has centered on formulas for recognition and entry into the United Nations. Our alliance with the Republic of China on Taiwan has been given less consideration, and its implications are optimistically avoided. But our security relationship with Taiwan-in particular the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1954-dictates certain diplomatic solutions and precludes others. Definitive choices will have to be made, and illusions of entertaining contradictory positions will have to be abandoned. If the consequences of our defense arrangement are not grasped, and the problems not deliberately resolved, the expectations that have been aroused may be unfulfilled, and the United States may proceed to underwrite a new order in East Asia that offers at best a tense military equilibrium and perpetual American involvement in the political evolution of the region.

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