To the Finland Station

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Essay

Not So Dire Straits

Bruce Gilley

As Taipei drifts further into Beijing’s sphere of influence, the United States must decide whether to continue arming Taiwan as a bulwark against a rising China or step back to allow the Taiwanese people to determine their own future.

Essay

Crisis in the Taiwan Strait?

Kurt M. Campbell and Derek J. Mitchell

The simmering dispute over the status of Taiwan may soon explode in violence. The Chinese regime sees Taiwan's recent democratization as an implicit challenge to its own authority and legitimacy and thus continues to threaten and intimidate the island. Meanwhile, Taiwan has procured advanced defensive weapons from the United States. Growing tensions across the Taiwan Strait, along with the lack of military and diplomatic communication, make conflict -- possibly involving the United States -- increasingly likely. To avoid such an outcome, Washington should actively facilitate cross-strait dialogue and deter provocations by either side. But it must do so soon, for both China and Taiwan are growing impatient.

Capsule Review

Bridging the Strait: Taiwan, China, and the Prospects for Reunification

Donald Zagoria

TAIPEI IS NOT HELSINKI

Vance Chang

In "Not So Dire Straits" (January/February 2010), Bruce Gilley seeks to explain the dynamics underlying current relations among the Republic of China (Taiwan), the People's Republic of China (PRC), and the United States. Yet his use of post-World War II Finland as a model for understanding recent developments in cross-strait relations, although superficially intriguing, does not hold up under detailed examination. And his attempt to portray the diplomatic strategy of Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan's president, as an effort to advance the "Finlandization" of Taiwan is both inaccurate and unjustified.

Gilley acknowledges some of the key building blocks that have helped the American people and the people of Taiwan forge a common set of values and interests: shared objectives during World War II, enduring strategic interests embodied in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, and a mutual commitment to democratic and economic freedom, to name a few. But by using the model of Finlandization to describe Taiwan's present course and by pairing this with an unsubstantiated claim of a "stark choice" facing U.S. policymakers, Gilley fails to grasp current political realities.

Consider, for example, the key elements of the theory of Finlandization. Gilley notes that in its 1948 agreement with the Soviet Union, Finland agreed not to join any alliances challenging Moscow and subsequently pursued a policy of appeasement and neutrality on U.S.-Soviet issues. Moscow, in turn, upheld Finland's autonomy and respected its democratic system. According to this theory, the "Finlandized state" sustains a peaceful relationship with the neighboring superpower by making strategic concessions to it, while the superpower need only make vague threats -- rather than pursue military coercion -- to influence the smaller neighbor's policies.

In many ways, relations between Taiwan and mainland China over the past half century have represented the exact opposite of the Finlandization model. Taipei has maintained an alliance with the United States over six decades, has frequently been at odds with Beijing, has rejected concessions and appeasement when its core values and freedoms have been challenged, and has been a strong supporter of U.S. interests in the region. For its part, the PRC can hardly be said to have upheld Taiwan's autonomy or respected its democratic system. In addition to issuing diplomatic threats, the PRC has consistently displayed its military might -- with a large and growing battery of missiles pointed across the Taiwan Strait.

Nor does Finlandization accurately describe the state of Taipei's relations with Beijing today. Ma's policies and actions since taking office in May 2008 defy such a characterization. Rather than propounding the more neutral or concessionary stance predicted by the Finlandization model, in his inaugural address, Ma strongly reaffirmed the United States as Taiwan's "foremost security ally and trading partner." Further defying any suggestion of appeasement, he then declared that "Taiwan doesn't just want security and prosperity. It wants dignity. Only when Taiwan is no longer being isolated in the international arena can cross-strait relations move forward with confidence."

And instead of "taking itself out of the game," as Gilley suggests, Taipei has set a course that has made the prospects for a triple win for Taiwan, China, and the United States more promising than ever before. Specifically, Ma has brought a new approach to Taiwan's foreign policy, aiming to reduce cross-strait tensions while simultaneously reinvigorating the historic partnership between Taipei and Washington. This points to yet another noteworthy distinction between the Finlandization model and Taiwan's experience -- unlike Finland's occasional reliance on the United States after World War II, Taiwan's partnership with the United States over the years has been consistent and steeped in shared values and a common sense of purpose. As a result, Ma has taken major strides to reestablish and strengthen mutual trust with Washington, including engaging in consultations with U.S. leaders during transit stops in the United States and negotiating arms deals in October 2008 and January 2010 that will augment Taiwan's defensive capabilities.

With the benefit of this strong partnership, Ma has also worked to forge a new relationship with Beijing -- based on a confident assessment of Taiwan's interests, not the strategic concessions typical of a Finlandized state. Taipei and Beijing have forged agreements on issues ranging from direct flights and shipping channels to combating crime and ensuring food safety. The most recent round of talks, in December, produced accords on both fishing rights and agricultural product inspections -- issues of critical importance to Taiwan's enduring commercial strength.

Likewise, Taiwan's broader diplomatic endeavors exhibit confidence rather than capitulation. Through subtle diplomacy, Taiwan's long-standing efforts to gain a seat at the table of international organizations bore fruit when the director general of the World Health Organization invited Taiwan to participate in the World Health Assembly as an observer in May 2009 -- a welcome first step on the road to broader participation in the WHO.