An Unlikely Trio
Can Iran, Turkey, and the United States Become Allies?
Article Summary and Author Biography
In Reset, Stephen Kinzer argues that the United States should partner with Iran and Turkey to promote democracy and combat extremism in the Middle East. Although it is hard to imagine Iran as a friend of Washington, Turkey is ready to play that role.
MUSTAFA AKYOL is a Turkish journalist and the author of the forthcoming book An Islamic Case for Freedom.
Reading List
An annotated Foreign Affairs syllabus on Turkish politics.
Reading List
An annotated Foreign Affairs syllabus on Iranian politics.
Insanity, it is often said, is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. When it comes to the Middle East, writes Stephen Kinzer, a veteran foreign correspondent, Washington has been doing just that. Hence, in Reset: Iran, Turkey, and America's Future, he proposes a radical new course for the United States in the region. The United States, he argues, needs to partner with Iran and Turkey to create a "powerful triangle" whose activities would promote a culture of democracy and combat extremism.
This is, of course, a counterintuitive argument. At the moment, Iran, with its radical ideology and burgeoning nuclear program, is one of Washington's biggest headaches. And although Turkey is a longtime U.S. ally, the U.S.-Turkish relationship has recently been tested. Last June, for example, Turkey's representative on the UN Security Council voted against U.S.-backed sanctions on Iran. These days, most of Washington is asking, "Who lost Turkey?" rather than envisioning more extensive cooperation with it.
Yet Kinzer's U.S.-Iranian-Turkish alliance is a long-term project, and the idea has ample grounding in the modern history of the region. Unlike other Muslim countries there, Kinzer shows, Iran and Turkey have at least a century's worth of experience struggling for political freedom, during which they "developed an understanding of democracy, and a longing for it." This means that they share some fundamental values with the United States. Moreover, Iran and Turkey have educated middle classes -- bases for strong civil societies. The two countries even share strategic goals with the United States: a desire to see Iraq and Afghanistan stabilized and radical Sunni movements such as al Qaeda suppressed.
CARROTS ARE FOR DONKEYS
Still, Kinzer's power triangle could not emerge in today's world. Iran, he writes, "would have to change dramatically" and turn into a democracy before such an alliance could be formed. How that would happen -- a truly daunting question -- is unclear, but in the meantime, Kinzer proposes a twofold strategy: engage with the current regime as effectively as possible and wait for the day when the country's democratically minded (and, as he calls them, "reliably pro-American") masses make their way to power.
Engagement, of course, is already the Obama administration's stated policy, but Kinzer urges Washington to be bolder, that is, to launch "direct, bilateral, comprehensive, and unconditional negotiations" with Tehran. Nixon's diplomatic breakthrough with communist China, he reminds readers, came at a time when Beijing was supplying weapons to North Vietnamese soldiers, who were using them to kill Americans. "Nixon did not make good behavior a condition of negotiation," Kinzer notes. "He recognized that diplomacy works in precisely the opposite way. Agreement comes first; changes in behavior follow."
Kinzer also criticizes the tone of current U.S. diplomacy, which does not give the Iranians what he thinks they are really looking for: "respect, dignity, a restoration of lost pride." This makes a so-called carrot-and-stick approach to Tehran counterproductive. That "may be appropriate for donkeys," Kinzer writes, "but not for dealing with a nation ten times older than [the United States]." The key to turning Iran from foe to friend is not to make Iran's regime feel more threatened; it is to make it feel more secure.
Even then, there are many imponderables about Iran, and the current regime may be unwilling to partner with the United States no matter the tone of U.S. overtures. Kinzer's only advice here is for the United States to avoid being emotional, "do nothing that will make that partnership more difficult to achieve when conditions are right," and, if negotiations do begin, make "no concessions to Iran's regime that weaken Iranians who are persecuted for defending democratic values." Yet Kinzer leaves unclear how that delicate balance could be maintained and offers little guidance for policymakers looking for a more practical road map.
CLASH WITHIN A CIVILIZATION
The other leg of Kinzer's proposed triangle, the U.S.-Turkish partnership, is much more realistic, having already been institutionalized by decades of cooperation between the two countries, and deserves closer attention. Although Turkey's supposed shift away from secularism toward Islamism has raised eyebrows in the West, it should not. In fact, Turkey's new path may actually increase the benefits of the U.S.-Turkish relationship, as Kinzer passionately argues.
To understand why, one must abandon the standard narrative about Turkey's recent history. According to that story, Turkey was once the sick man of Europe, trapped in religious obscurantism. Then, Kemal Atatürk came along with westernizing reforms and took the nation on a great secular leap forward. Unfortunately, however, the forces of darkness survived underground and have recently reemerged in the guise of the quasi-religious Justice and Development Party (AKP).
At the heart of this story is a battle between Western enlightenment and obscurantism. But in fact, Turkey's real dichotomy has always been between its westernizers and its modernizers. Whereas the westernizers, led by Atatürk, sought to remodel Turkey into a fully European nation, emphasizing cultural westernization and secularization, the modernizers called for political and economic reform but insisted on preserving the traditional culture and religion at the same time.
- previous-disabled
- Page 1of 4
- next
Sign-up for free weekly updates from ForeignAffairs.com.