Yemen on the Brink

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Letter From

Letter From Sana’a

Abdullah al-Qubati

Inspired by uprisings throughout the Middle East, opposition activists in Yemen have begun confronting the regime in the streets. Can the country's disparate opposition factions find a common language -- and will the Saleh government listen?

This article appears in the Foreign Affairs/CFR eBook, The New Arab Revolt.

Snapshot

Yemen's Tribal Showdown

Charles Schmitz

With fighting now engulfing Yemen's capital, the country's uprising has turned into a tribal contest for power. President Ali Abdullah Saleh has proven to be a master manipulator of the country's tribal intrigues -- and likely preserved his own political survival.

As the political battle for Yemen’s future unfolds, the country’s most immediate challenge is to avert a bloody civil war. Yet if Yemenis avoid this outcome by peacefully transitioning power, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s replacements will immediately face a daunting economic crisis, festering regional tensions, and an unstable security environment. Moreover, as Saleh negotiates with elites in the capital, powerful tribal and religious interest groups may drown out the youth and civil society protesters demanding far-reaching democratic reform.

Those currently aligned against Saleh represent a diverse group of unlikely allies. Youth and civil society activists originally initiated the anti-regime protests and stand at their symbolic core. But over time and for various reasons -- including genuine support for democratic change, opposition to Saleh’s heavy-handed response to the protests, and political opportunism -- established opposition parties, Huthis rebels, some southern separatists, religious leaders, prominent tribal sheikhs, businessmen, and army commanders have joined the protests. Although youth and civil society activists welcome assistance in ousting Saleh, they are legitimately skeptical of the role that some of these forces may play in the future.

Among these latecomers is the country’s major opposition bloc, the Joint Meeting Parties, a conglomeration of five opposition parties, including the country’s main Islamist opposition, Islah, and the Yemeni Socialist Party. Although the JMP eventually joined the protests and now advocates for Saleh’s immediate departure, some of its members -- particularly Islah’s leadership -- enjoy deep personal, financial, and political connections with the current regime. These connections raise questions about the ability or desire of the JMP to faithfully negotiate on behalf of those protesting on the streets. Liberal Yemenis are also deeply concerned about the future role of the Salafi wing of Islah, headed by the powerful cleric, Abdulmajid al-Zindani.

More significantly, the protest movement has increasingly become a battleground for powerful forces within Saleh’s own tribal confederation, Hashid. The sons of Abdullah Bin Hussein al-Ahmar, the late preeminent sheikh of Hashid, have been particularly vocal opponents of Saleh. Hamid al-Ahmar, a member of Islah and a powerful businessman, has for years called for Saleh to leave office and was the first in his family to support the protest movement. His brother Hussein joined shortly thereafter, resigning from Saleh’s party and rallying tribal supporters to the capital to join the demonstrators. Following the March 18 shooting of 52 protesters in Yemen’s capital of Sana’a, their older brother Sadik, the current leading sheikh of Hashid, added his voice to calls for Saleh’s ouster. Then, on March 22, Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar -- a powerful military commander and member of Saleh’s tribe whose influence makes him the second-most powerful man in the country -- defected to the protesters, rendering a decisive blow to Saleh. The sons of Sheikh al-Abdullah and individuals such as Muhsin have felt increasingly marginalized by the concentration of power and wealth around Saleh’s son, Ahmed, and nephews. By abandoning Saleh now, they have shifted power within Hashid away from Saleh’s family and toward themselves.

Muhsin’s decision to join the protesters heightened the risk of wider conflict, leading to dozens of defections within the army, including the commander of the military’s eastern division who controls the oil and natural gas export terminals in southeast Yemen.

Despite these desertions, however, Saleh has received enough support to keep the protest movement at bay, at least for the moment. Although the regular army largely supports the protesters in the wake of Muhsin’s defection, the elite Republican Guards, headed by Saleh’s son, and the Central Security Forces and the security services, controlled by his nephews and other close advisors, remain loyal to the regime. Muhsin’s forces have taken defensive positions to protect protesters in Sana’a’s Tagheer Square, while the Republican Guard has increased its presence around the presidential palace, the Central Bank, and other key government buildings. Until now, the two sides have avoided serious confrontation, although skirmishes between the two forces were reported in the southeastern port town of Al Mukallah. Tribes loyal to Ali Muhsin have also attacked Republican Guard positions in the northern governorate of Al Jawf.

As both sides send forces to Sana’a in preparation for a potential confrontation, security conditions outside the capital are rapidly deteriorating. The countryside is being left in the hands of tribal sheikhs or popular committees, exposing parts of the country susceptible to al Qaeda infiltration. Indeed, armed militants have reportedly seized several towns in the governorates of Abyan. Groups supporting an independent state in south Yemen have strengthened their control over parts of the south, while the Huthi rebels are in full control of Saada.