D. GRAHAM HUTTON, Assistant Editor of the London Economist; author of "Is It Peace?"
RESIDENTS in Mexico City tumbled from their beds early one morning just before last Christmas to find windows rattling, candelabra swaying and curtains streaming before an imperceptible wind. It was the beginning of a series of grave earthquakes. An American friend, long resident in Mexico, said to me at the time: "This is nothing to the other earthquake which is coming. You outsiders can't be expected to perceive the premonitory tremors under the political and economic crust. But we older residents do. We know that we are sitting on a perch far more dangerous than Popocatepetl; for Popo's extinct, whereas Mexican polity and economy are very shortly going through the roof."
Since then, something very like a major political and economic earthquake has indeed rocked Mexico, and brought that country into the forefront of world affairs. It is not simply that sixteen foreign-owned Mexican oil corporations have suddenly been expropriated and taken over by the Mexican Government; nor that Mexico's second largest industry -- the production of oil -- stands paralyzed before a grim future; nor that in consequence her largest industry -- the mining of precious and non-ferrous metals -- faces serious losses; nor that the United States Treasury has countered the abrupt collapse in the Mexican peso by discontinuing its agreement of last December to buy newly-mined Mexican silver; nor, finally, that the Mexican Government has broken diplomatic relations with Great Britain. It is rather that during the last four or five years Mexican politics and economics have been steadily approaching one of those periodic crises which, at periods roughly a generation apart ever since the secession from Spain nearly 120 years ago, have regularly racked the country. The texture of the Republic's history is shot through with the violent hues of revolution, civil war, military dictatorship, xenophobic explosions (generally ending in military defeat and loss of Mexican territory), internecine party feuds, domestic corruption in the grand manner, and the perversion of administration and law by men with overweening personal ambitions. Maybe it is not for nothing that the best and most highly colored sarapes in Mexico are woven at Santa Anna, a village which bears the name of the most colorful personality in the history of the Mexican Republic -- president, dictator, general in the field, rebel, exile, and all of them twice and thrice over...
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THE rumors of war which disturbed Europe in the summer of 1914 left Mexico unconcerned. She had too many troubles at home just then to be bothered by events overseas. Following the overthrow of the Diaz régime some years before, she had been shaken by revolution; and in April 1914, just a few months before the beginning of the World War, she had undergone the further experience of military intervention by the United States, culminating in the occupation of Vera Cruz by American forces.
In 1985, Mexico will commemorate the seventy-fifth anniversary of its revolution. A new political system and social order was founded after 1910, which modernized our nation within a climate of democratic freedom and political stability. Now, toward the end of the century, Mexico faces harsh new challenges. Our economic development has brought structural imbalances which must be corrected, and we face the immediate impacts of external pressures, the international economic situation, and conflicts afflicting the international system in Central America, the Middle East and other regions of the world.
Mexico's famed political stability has not been destroyed by the country's current economic crisis. But that stability can no longer be taken for granted. Over the past half-century, the Mexican political system has brought economic development, albeit unjustly distributed, inefficiently planned and plagued with waste and corruption. It has ensured social peace and political continuity, although with recurrent repression and electoral fraud. And it has maintained peaceful relations with the United States, despite asymmetries, irritants and sporadic confrontations. These three pillars of Mexico's stability, which is unique in Latin America, are not yet crumbling, but all are growing weaker, as is the political system they sustain.

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