HANSON W. BALDWIN, military and naval correspondent of the New York Times; author of "The Caissons Roll," "Strategy for Victory" and other works
AMERICA'S third year of war closed with United States troops fighting in the Philippine Islands and along the borders of Germany. The fourth year opens with the end of the war in sight.
During the three years of global conflict the United States has transported 5,000,000 armed men overseas (up to November 1944), and has suffered 528,795 casualties.[i] We have lost a minimum of 3,750,000 gross tons of merchant shipping, but have built 45,000,000 deadweight tons; we have lost two battleships, nine carriers, nine cruisers, 50 destroyers and 32 submarines, but since 1938 we have built a fleet many times the size of the prewar Navy and larger than the combined navies of the world. We have lost 14,600 planes in combat and 17,500 through accidents in this country, but built about 232,403 planes between July 1, 1940, and September 30, 1944. Up to the end of the current fiscal year, the war will have cost the United States about 400 billion dollars in appropriations and contract authorizations.
At this great price -- and an intangible cost which is incalculable -- the United States, fighting as part of the greatest coalition in history, has achieved battle results which are still short of complete triumph but which have decided the outcome of the war. The United States has experienced great defeats but has won through to great victories. Yet the end will be as costly as the beginning, in effort and probably in lives. The campaigns may be long drawn out. The battles of ultimate decision remain to be fought.
The American armies that flowed like a surging tide across France met stiffened defenses along the German frontier during the fall months of 1944 and were handicapped by problems of supply and bad weather. The war of movement gave way to the war of position. Just as these lines are written, the difficult, bitter business of a winter offensive in western Europe is being undertaken. But in the tropical Pacific, favored by the bright suns and smiling weather of the equatorial latitudes, we have dealt heavy blows to the enemy. General Douglas MacArthur returned to the Philippines, and in the Second Battle of the Philippine Sea the Navy won a great but costly victory.
II
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THE spring of 1944 has been a time of preparation. Now the preparations are to be put to the test. The invasion of western Europe, an operation of such size and peculiar complexity that there is probably no analogy to it in military history, is imminent as these lines are written. By the time they are published, the Allies may be engaged in the furious battles which will decide at the minimum the duration of the war, at the maximum its outcome.
IN the summer of 1944 the American Army came of age. The successful invasion of Normandy and the quick capture of Cherbourg in June meant the negation, in a strategic sense, of all Hitler's hopes and marked the beginning of the end for Germany. In rapid succession, in late July and August, the forces of the Allies broke out from the Cotentin peninsula, smashed much of the German Seventh Army, overran Brittany, captured Paris and reached the Meuse at Sedan. Simultaneously, they invaded southern France.
THE three-power Conference in the Crimea, the Russian sweep from the Vistula across the Oder, and the American return to Luzon and invasion of Iwo in the Volcano Islands, 750 miles from Tokyo, were the principal milestones of the sixth winter of the war -- the fourth of American participation.

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