DANKWART A. RUSTOW, Assistant Professor of Politics, Princeton University
EGYPT'S agreement to barter cotton for arms from the Soviet bloc has once again involved the Near East conspicuously in the Cold War. The Communists have followed up this victory, their first in the Near East in about eight years, by making further offers of arms and other types of aid to countries in the area. The regional troubles which the Russians are thus exploiting were already sufficiently grave. In late August there began a series of armed clashes between Egypt and Israel which have resulted in the heaviest casualties since 1949. The impasse in British-Greek-Turkish negotiations over Cyprus set off a wave of ugly mob violence in Istanbul and Izmir unprecedented in 22 years of the Turkish Republic, paralyzing, for a time at least, both the eastern flank of NATO and the year-old Balkan alliance. Further to the West, recurrent riots in Morocco and Algeria caused France to divert about half her NATO forces to North Africa and jeopardized an area containing a heavy concentration of Western defense installations.
In the year preceding these outbreaks of violence, Western diplomats had achieved what appeared to be notable successes, including agreements regarding the Suez base, Iranian oil, Tunisian home rule and mutual defense among the so-called "northern tier" countries (Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Pakistan). Almost overnight the crises in Egypt, Palestine, Cyprus and North Africa threatened the regional stability and defensive strength that these agreements had seemed to promise.
The Near East has long been recognized as a focal area both in world politics and in military strategy. What are the main factors that give it its special strategic value? What are its assets and liabilities for regional defense? What are the threats against which it may have to be defended?
II
The first strategic factor is geography. Because of its location, the Near East can serve both as a link and as a barrier between oceans and between continents. A strong Near Eastern defense system would provide an essential connection between Western positions in Europe and in Australasia, securing communications

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TWO THOUSAND years ago, Arab control of the overland route for caravans up the Arabian peninsula, which linked India with the west, brought great wealth to south Arabia. But after the Romans learned of the sea route to India, the old caravan road came to be used only by pilgrims on their way to Mecca; and the slackening of the western demand for the goods in which Arabia had specialized, such as frankincense from the Hadhramaut, further impoverished the country.
Once again the Middle East seems fated to become the main danger zone of world politics. During the last decade the East-West détente has prevented a head-on collision between the superpowers there, but many signs point to impending changes. As the Soviet Union reaches strategic parity with the United States, there is growing temptation for it to assert its strength in an area so much nearer Moscow than Washington. The Western withdrawal from the area will be complete with the British departure from the Persian Gulf. From the Soviet point of view the Middle East is a vacuum and seems the least risky area in the world in which to expand the Soviet sphere of influence. The Russian drive to the south which began in the eighteenth century seems at last likely to achieve fulfillment.
THE revolution which precipitated Russia's industrialization coincided with the opening of an equally new phase in the history of the neighboring Asiatic countries: Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, Sinkiang (Chinese Turkistan) and Outer Mongolia. The transformation that took place in these countries during the decade following the Soviet Revolution greatly facilitated contacts between them and the new Russia. Strongly nationalistic governments with a taste for westernization stepped into the shoes of the Sultan, the Shah and the Amir.

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