Japanese Socialism in Crisis

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TODAY Japan can be called a one and one-half party state. The weak and divided Japanese Socialists cannot seriously challenge the massive Liberal-Democratic Party. In large measure, this has always been true. Even when the Japanese conservatives were divided, prior to 1955, they consistently polled close to two-thirds of the vote in national elections and a considerably higher percentage in most local contests. Until recently, however, the Japanese Socialist Party was filled with hope for the future. Its position was much stronger than in the prewar era; after a sharp setback in the 1949 election, the party had made moderate but steady gains. In spite of vexing internal problems and a period of open cleavage, it had edged upward in each successive election, both in percentage of votes and number of seats in the Diet. The increases were attributed largely to voting trends among the postwar generation and the recently emerged labor class. Some saw in these trends the approach of a Socialist era. At least Japan seemed to be moving in the direction of a genuine two-party system.

Any such trend, however, has been reversed. Optimism in Socialist ranks has been replaced by gloom. The Japanese Socialist Party has been stopped in its tracks and now faces another internal crisis of major proportions. New clouds first appeared in the election for the House of Representatives in May 1958, when the Socialist rate of growth declined, and a serious question was raised as to whether the party could ever attain power under its current organization, leadership and policies. This issue became more critical after the House of Councillor election of June 1959. While the Socialists managed to increase their membership in the upper house slightly, their percentage of the vote declined. Local elections also continued to go very badly for them. The party could not seem to rise above the tremendous barrier that separated it from some two-thirds of the Japanese voters...