Recent political transitions in Belgrade and Zagreb have created a historic chance to make lasting peace in the Balkans. Torn by ethnic strife for a century and a half, the region must now choose between disintegration into ever-smaller ethnic states and integration into the European Union. The EU must actively facilitate the latter, or the Balkans could suffer another round of bloody war.
Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia should be watched closely as barometers of Russia's progress toward better relations with the West. Besides their strategic borders with Russia, these nations have been the historical harbingers of Moscow's intentions abroad, as their early revolts presaged the collapse of the Soviet empire. The Baltic states are still subject to a "demographic occupation" by postwar Russian immigrants, even if Russian soldiers have finally left. For those in Moscow who still harbor designs on the "near abroad," a greedy eye will focus on these newly independent nations first. Western nations, particularly the United States, must steel their resolve and preserve the place of the Baltic states in the new Europe.
