A single-minded focus on the U.S. trade deficit with China ignores a new reality: since the early 1990s, the ground beneath U.S.-China relations has been shifting. Shallow links based on trade have given way to deeper ties characterized by rising U.S. foreign direct investment and sales by U.S. foreign affiliates in China.
The United States is obsessed with its ever-growing trade deficit. Yet trade is no longer a valid measure of global competitiveness. Today U.S. firms compete in the world marketplace through foreign-affiliate sales instead of exports -- and they do so with unparalleled success. Overblown fears about the burgeoning trade deficit, along with a slowing U.S. economy, could spark protectionist policies in Washington, which could then trigger retaliations around the globe. This outcome -- not the size of the trade deficit -- is the greatest danger.
