Brazil is on the cusp of fulfilling its potential as a global player. The next U.S. president should rethink relations with this important country.
Under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Brazil has finally embraced modern capitalism and broken decisively with a sclerotic old economic model. The country's ambitious reforms are encouraging private investment and loosening state control. Even the 1999 currency crisis eventually ended smoothly. But the world should hold its applause until Cardoso can prove that his reforms will last. If not, his efforts will merely join Brazil's dreary list of false starts and missteps.
As in other Latin American countries that have returned to democracy this decade after bitter experiences under military regimes, Brazil's "New Republic" came to power with wide public support. The 1985 transfer of power from the military to the politicians went smoothly. The political and labor climate was relatively calm. The productive base of the economy was solid and business sectors wanted to give democracy a chance. Brazil had a foreign debt of over $100 billion, but huge trade surpluses made foreign creditors willing to refinance the debt. Under these circumstances the transition did not have to go badly. But it has.
