Kenneth Pollack
Essay
Mar/Apr
2005
If Washington wants to derail Iran's nuclear program, it must take advantage of a split in Tehran between hard-liners, who care mostly about security, and pragmatists, who want to fix Iran's ailing economy. By promising strong rewards for compliance and severe penalties for defiance, Washington can strengthen the pragmatists' case that Tehran should choose butter over bombs.
Postscript
A postscript by the authors to their January/February 1999 essay "The Rollback Fantasy."
Essay
Jan/Feb
1999
The hottest foreign policy idea in Washington today is using the Iraqi opposition to topple Saddam Hussein. But all the current rollback plans are militarily ludicrous, anathema to key U.S. allies, or unacceptable to the American public. Relying on airpower would require a Desert Storm-sized air war and even then would probably flop; seizing enclaves from Saddam's grasp asks far too much of the feeble opposition army; and none of Iraq's neighbors will host guerrillas out to oust Saddam. Rollback's advocates are indulging in either wishful thinking or cynical politics. The only real option is renewed containment to keep Iraq in its box. Delusions of grandeur about toppling Saddam will lead only to another Bay of Pigs.
