Lawrence A. Veit

Doldrums or depression? The meaning of the latest economic indicators may be unclear, but at best they are signaling a pause in the economic recovery of the major industrialized nations and a new wave of political malaise. The speeches read by financial officials at the October International Monetary Fund-World Bank meetings in Manila extolled the economic improvements expected in 1976. Regrettably, however, most of these set pieces had been written before the August holidays, and when the ministers returned home many were confronted with the stark reality of economic stagnation, persistent inflationary pressure and balance-of-payments deficits. The first question, therefore, is whether the journalists are correct in labeling the current economic scene as a pause in the recovery or whether, in fact, it is the onset of a premature cyclical downturn.