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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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May/June
2011
The Black Swan of CairoPremium Article available to subscribers and site license holders.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Blyth

The upheavals in the Middle East have much in common with the recent global financial crisis: both were plausible worst-case scenarios whose probability was dramatically underestimated. When policymakers try to suppress economic or political volatility, they only increase the risk of blowups.



This article appears in the Foreign Affairs/CFR eBook, The New Arab Revolt.