Wayne Smith got it partly right. Fidel Castro may lead Cuba to democracy and capitalism, but the key to further opening is a strong U.S. embargo.
Assesses the impact of the Soviet collapse on the survivability of the Castro regime. Argues there should be no change in US policy towards Cuba. Loosening economic pressure would lessen incentive to reform, while increasing it would risk turning a "Cuban problem into a US problem".
Speculates on the continuance of Castro's rule, deprived of Soviet support.
The USA maintains that its aim is for a peaceful settlement in Nicaragua in a regional context that advances the prospects for democracy, protects the interests of the Contras and preserves US strategic interests. These goals involve a potentially long and difficult process. The accord concluded by the Central American Presidents in Aug 1987 by no means ensures peace. The practical question facing the USA is how to preserve its commitment to the Contras while still influencing the negotiating process.
Contadora is the code word used to mean the pursuit of peace in Central America through negotiations. Its main alternatives are widely believed to be a U.S. invasion, a regional war or both. Like motherhood and apple pie, Contadora is liked and supported by everyone.
Latin America was a media event in 1982. "The fire next door" in Central America continued to make front-page headlines. In the spring war broke out between Argentina and Britain in the South Atlantic, where space-age weapons were used to fight a conflict that seemed a throwback to the nineteenth century. By the end of the year the debt crisis was center stage, with Argentina, Mexico and Brazil struggling to avoid default on a collective foreign debt of $200 billion.
The United States recently "discovered" Mexico. Potential oil reserves of 200 billion barrels helped focus our attention and sparked interest in forging some kind of special relationship with our southern neighbor. Concrete proposals range from a North American Accord or Common Market to less dramatic package deals that would swap petroleum for increased Mexican access to U.S. markets.
