Meet the terrorist of the future: less ideological, more likely to harbor ethnic grievances, perhaps fired by apocalpytic visions, harder to distinguish from others outside the law. He (or she) is armed with new weapons and experimenting with others, and using them more indiscriminately. Terrorism is by no means the only option now; a political wing can openly raise funds, run schools, and contest elections. The loner with a grudge has turned to terror, and may be the computer hacker next door. At the other end of the scale, state-sponsored terrorism takes the place of warfare. The destructive power of terrorism is on the rise, and the most advanced societies are the most vulnerable.
Rash budget cuts threaten to silence Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, and other U.S. agencies. Public diplomacy proved invaluable during the Cold War, and it remains an essential weapon against today's new threats.
Nothing is certain in the troubled Russian republic - except the resurrection of the long-dormant nationalist right wing. The end of empire has fueled a sense of national humiliation comparable to Weimar Germany's after Versailles. Even if fascism is unlikely to prevail, the new right nonetheless has "a reasonable chance in the struggle for Russia's soul and political future."
Comments on (1) the difficulty of obtaining a widely-accepted definition of terrorism (2) the response to terrorism by democratic states (3) the particular case of state-sponsored terrorism. Stress that terrorism "makes a great noise, but so far it has not been very destructive".
What is bewildering is the conviction--and it is becoming more and more general--that in all the perils that confront us, the direction of affairs is given over to a way of thinking that has no longer any understanding of itself. It is like being in a carriage, descending an increasingly precipitous slope, and suddenly realizing that there is no coachman on the box." The lines were written in 1854 by Fyodor Tiutchev, poet and diplomat, in a letter to his wife. The image is frightening and many seem to have experienced similar fears as the year 1983 drew to a close.
Once again the Middle East seems fated to become the main danger zone of world politics. During the last decade the East-West détente has prevented a head-on collision between the superpowers there, but many signs point to impending changes. As the Soviet Union reaches strategic parity with the United States, there is growing temptation for it to assert its strength in an area so much nearer Moscow than Washington. The Western withdrawal from the area will be complete with the British departure from the Persian Gulf. From the Soviet point of view the Middle East is a vacuum and seems the least risky area in the world in which to expand the Soviet sphere of influence. The Russian drive to the south which began in the eighteenth century seems at last likely to achieve fulfillment.
