Q&A With Andrew Natsios on Sudan

Is Peace Possible After the ICC Warrant?

A: Too much emphasis has been put on Bashir -- the regime is an oligarchy, not a one-person dictatorship. His entire party is the problem: if he were removed but his party still in power, little would change inside the country. In some ways, Bashir is more moderate than other elements of the ruling party, which stonewalled the North-South peace agreement that he ultimately supported despite his party's objections.  

The Chinese are engaging constructively, but they do so very quietly, which is their diplomatic style. The reason the government of Sudan ultimately accepted the UN peacekeeping force (now two-thirds deployed) is because of Chinese pressure. The Chinese have a vested interest in peace in Sudan and have played an increasingly active and constructive role, which the United States should continue to encourage; the U.S. government should continue to work with them cooperatively. 

Claire Bannerman: From 1985 to 1987, I lived in Nairobi, Kenya. From 1994 to 1995, I volunteered at the Center of Concern. Sudan was in dire straits then, and the UN was very much aware of the needs of the Sudanese people. We have the dedication of some terrific people who give their lives to improving the world's worst situations, so my question is: Why does it take so long?

A: Sadly, everything in Sudan moves in slow motion (except the killing of civilians) probably because of the paralysis of the political system, its internal divisions and dysfunctions, and because of the very weak political institutions of the country.